AES Mexico is preparing to capture a new stage of growth in the energy market , with participation in mixed and private schemes and some stand-alone storage opportunities, while projecting that the expansion of demand could require an additional 2,000 to 3,000 MW per year .
Although the company did not officially confirm the size of its pipeline , Andrés Cabrera, commercial and development director of AES Mexico, hinted during the streaming event"It had to be said and it was said ," organized by Energía Estratégica, that the portfolio under analysis could be around 1000 MW in this new phase of the market.
“ We are participating in mixed and private processes, what we call organic ones, which are the projects that were also progressing normally. So let's say that today we have a juicy pipeline ,” Cabrera stated during the streaming.
When asked specifically whether that portfolio could be around 1 GW , the executive avoided confirming a definitive figure because the processes are still open, although he acknowledged that that order of magnitude is reasonable.
“ Let’s just say that’s an average that makes sense ,” he noted.
The strategy is not limited to a single technology. AES seeks to build a diversified portfolio across solar, wind, and storage , while analyzing both internally developed projects and emerging market opportunities resulting from new calls for proposals.
The company expects that this pipeline can translate into concrete announcements during the coming months, once the corresponding stages of the processes in which it participates are completed.
The interest generated by the initial calls for tenders also leads AES to believe that the current bidding cycle could continue. One of the main indicators was the mixed investment model: compared to a call for tenders of approximately 7,400 MW , the initial expressions of interest reached around 38 GW distributed across more than 200 projects .
“ There may be an appetite for a second, third, fourth call for proposals ,” anticipated Cabrera, who believes that the difference will lie in “ the robustness behind the development in each of these located projects .”
That volume doesn't mean all the projects are ready to move forward. Cabrera warns that behind the interest lie projects at different stages of development, and that the real difference will lie in the ability to meet requirements for land, guarantees, permits, supply, EPC, financing, and interconnection .
The mixed scheme with CFE gains bankability
For AES, another of the central changes in the new Mexican market is in the mixed investment structure and in the role of the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) as a counterparty.
Cabrera acknowledged that the model initially raised questions among private sector stakeholders. However, as its structuring progressed, the combination of long-term contracts, offtaker support, permits, and interconnection became more understandable to developers and financial institutions.
“ After going through those learning stages, it makes sense for the banks, it makes sense with a 25-year contract, and for the developers ,” the executive said.
He also highlighted that there is greater institutional coordination among the bodies responsible for regulating, planning and operating the system, something that, from AES's perspective, reduces uncertainty compared to previous stages.
“ Everything is being handled uniformly, and that provides bankability, certainty, and ensures that deadlines have better traceability than before ,” Cabrera noted.
This new approach can also ensure continuity of processes if the initial projects are successfully implemented. Cabrera believes that the robustness of the development and the achievement of milestones will be crucial in determining whether Mexico will secure further bidding rounds .
The executive argues that the critical point will no longer be solely competing on price, but demonstrating that behind each offer there are secured lands, EPC contractors, supply, financing, permits and real capacity to meet the committed deadlines.
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“ Beyond the fact that prices might suddenly surprise us, the question is whether the bandwidth development will be executed within the established timeframes and commitments ,” the executive stated.
Guarantees also filter opportunities for AES
The market recovery not only opens up space for in-house developments. Cabrera acknowledges that various developers have begun approaching AES with advanced projects within the new calls for proposals , which is starting to generate opportunities for partnerships, acquisitions, or the incorporation of assets.
“ Today, the scheme is causing developers to knock on our door ,” the executive revealed.
However, the existence of an award or a contract is not enough for AES to move forward. The company analyzes the viability of the development, land control, engineering, the EPC structure, the interconnection, and the financial capacity necessary to sustain the commitments made.
One of the clearest filters is the guarantees. Cabrera explained: “ The initial guarantees were $10,000 USD/MW, then they increased to $15,000 USD/MW ,” he detailed.
To illustrate the scale of the requirement, the executive explained that " a 200 MW project can require between 3 and 5 million dollars in guarantees alone."
That level of financial commitment can become a decisive factor in determining which developers continue alone and which seek partners with greater backing , opening a new dynamic of buying, selling and partnering in projects in Mexico.
Up to 3 GW of new annual demand: AES responds with solar, wind and BESS.
Cabrera believes that the country could need an additional 2,000 to 3,000 MW per year simply to keep pace with the normal growth of its economy and electricity consumption.
“ Mexico needs that to meet its demand and maintain its peak growth, without being a nearshoring peak or an exponential one ,” he stated.
The estimate is especially relevant because it does not incorporate scenarios of extraordinary expansion linked to nearshoring or the growth of data centers , two factors that could further increase the need for new capacity by 2030.
Within its renewable portfolio, AES seeks to maintain a balance between solar and wind power , two technologies that present different advantages and challenges from the perspective of development and commercialization.
In addition to this combination, there is storage. The company is analyzing both batteries associated with renewable generation and stand-alone BESS opportunities , a technology that is beginning to gain its own space within the new architecture of the Mexican market.
“ The scheme of the call for proposals, which is a long-term contract with a tolling agreement scheme, is working today ,” he assured.
However, there are still regulatory aspects that could increase the economic appeal of storage. Services such as frequency regulation or other complementary features could add new revenue streams once the operating rules are more precisely defined.
“ There are still some things that need to be detailed, things that need to be known, that could make the scheme more attractive ,” the executive stated.
AES is also seeing opportunities outside of its organic growth. The reactivation of calls for proposals has begun to move projects in the secondary market , with developers seeking capital, partners, or buyers capable of assuming the financial and technical commitments required by the new regulations.
Cabrera acknowledges that some of these opportunities have already begun to come to the company, although he warns that the existence of a PPA or an interest from CFE does not in itself guarantee that the asset will be attractive to AES .
The analysis involves verifying land, engineering, guarantees, interconnection, supply contracts, and capacity to meet the planned timelines. This level of scrutiny will be particularly relevant considering that the official expectation is that a large portion of the projects will reach commercial operation before 2030 .