The continued operation of Almaraz until June 2030 introduces a new variable into the future Spanish capacity market. The plant will provide firm generation for longer than anticipated and will alter the coverage requirements that will define the first tenders.
José Luis Bernal Albendín , energy expert and communicator, and head of the Energy Office of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry , explains in a dialogue with Energía Estratégica :
“The extension of the Almaraz operation does not eliminate the need for a capacity market, but it does temporarily modify power availability and the expected utilization of combined cycle plants. This suggests updating hedging analyses and, above all, correctly dimensioning the volume of the first auctions.”
The mechanism was already authorized by the European Commission on May 29, with an estimated budget of €9 billion over ten years. Spain, however, still needs to approve the ministerial order that will establish its national regulations.
The analysis published in the Official State Gazette (BOE) estimates that electricity generation from gas could be 7% lower in 2030 compared to the scenario considered in the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC ). The new projection modifies the conditions initially considered and adds pressure to a timeline that remains open.
Regarding the possibility that the order will be issued imminently, Bernal expresses caution:
“September may be the political target, but it cannot yet be taken for granted.”
The extension of the nuclear plant could also intensify competition for effective access to the grid. Aurora Energy Research projects that wind and solar curtailment would be 40% higher in 2030 compared to a scenario without the Almaraz extension, especially in Extremadura, where significant restrictions already exist.
This surplus reinforces the role of storage, although it does not in itself guarantee its profitability. To mobilize capital, future calls for proposals must adequately recognize the contribution of each technology, avoid over-provisioning, and limit the impact on consumers.
The distribution will have different speeds : combined cycles start with an advantage for the debut; batteries will compete for the long-term investment signal; demand management could contain costs; and renewables will improve their position through hybridization.
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The ministerial order continues to set the pace
Brussels has already authorized the capacity market scheme as state aid, but Spain still needs to publish the order that creates and regulates it at the national level . At the end of June, the Ministry for Ecological Transition stated that its processing was practically complete and awaiting signature.
The summer passed without any updates in the Official State Gazette (BOE). Furthermore, industry reports indicate that the Government's Delegate Commission for Economic Affairs has decided to analyze in greater detail its impact on consumer bills . As of now, there is no official confirmation of a new date.
Even with approval during September or the last quarter of 2026, Bernal considers it feasible to hold the first auction in 2027. The window, however, will be narrow and will require Red Eléctrica, the State Secretariat for Energy, and the CNMC to expedite the technical developments.
The publication of the standard will be just the first step. Afterwards, the required power, delivery year, contract duration, firmness coefficients, stress hours, guarantees, penalty system, and prequalification schedule must be defined.
“The order may cause political delay, but the rules and implementation can cause operational delay,” the specialist summarizes.
One way to accelerate the start-up would be to use a temporary or adjustment call for tenders for existing facilities , while a main auction offers long-term contracts for new assets. This combination would allow for contracted resources to be available before the full deployment of the model is complete.
Gas at the start, batteries for the next cycle
Combined cycle power plants have a head start in capturing a large share of the initial contracts. They are already built, can sustain their production for extended periods, and do not depend on completing new construction to provide dispatchable power.
Batteries, on the other hand, appear to be the prime candidates to receive the signal for future investments. Contracts of up to fifteen years, envisioned for certain projects, could provide predictability and facilitate financing, but their value will depend on the final design.
The duration of the systems will be one of the critical factors. A two-hour installation does not offer the same coverage as one lasting four or eight hours during extended periods of scarcity. The coefficient assigned to each configuration will determine how much power it can offer and, consequently, what revenue it will have available.
The decision comes at a time of accelerated administrative activity. In August alone, nine projects totaling 327.6 MW were published in the Official State Gazette (BOE), while One Hub Energy estimates that Spain could end 2026 with nearly 650 MW of installed capacity. Despite this, obtaining permits still does not guarantee construction.
Availability payments will not replace the rest of the economic model. Developers will need to combine them with arbitrage, balancing services, constraint management, and private optimization agreements.