The Yucatan Peninsula faces new questions about the capacity of its electrical infrastructure, after the 08COZ-34.5 node, associated with Cozumel, registered a Local Marginal Price (PML) of 11626 Mexican pesos per MWh at 10:00 on October 7, 2026.
The record, released by Admonitor Energy Analytics with information from the electricity market, coincides with announcements from the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) to reinforce the region's transmission and distribution networks, in response to supply interruptions affecting homes, industries and businesses.
However, sources in the electricity sector consulted for this article identify a more specific problem in Cozumel: the capacity limitations of the submarine link that connects the island to the continental system and the need to resort to local generation with fossil fuels, particularly diesel, to supplement the supply.
This situation is significant because localized increases in electricity prices can reflect infrastructure constraints and higher supply costs. However, the recorded price alone does not allow us to determine what proportion is due to congestion, losses, or generation costs.
The episode also poses a challenge for Mexican energy planning: increasing the availability of generation on the peninsula does not necessarily eliminate the physical constraints that make it difficult to transport that electricity to certain consumption centers.
Specifically, on October 7, during a press conference led by President Claudia Sheinbaum, the CEO of CFE, Emilia Esther Calleja Alor, assured that the state-owned company is working to solve the causes of the interruptions.
“We have been working hard to strengthen all the infrastructure,” said Calleja, who explained that the interventions are based on investments and specific diagnoses of the different areas of the country.
The official maintains that the peninsula is a priority within the company's operational work.
“Specifically in the Yucatan Peninsula we have reinforced with crews from all over the Republic,” the general director noted, adding that modernization and maintenance tasks are being carried out on the transmission and distribution networks.
These interventions aim to improve service continuity, although price behavior in certain nodes raises additional questions regarding the sufficiency of the networks and the need to expand available capacity.
The Cozumel bottleneck: a limitation that CENACE had already identified
The problem identified by industry sources has documented precedents in the planning of the Mexican electricity system.
The National Energy Control Center (CENACE) identified in its Program for the Expansion and Modernization of the National Transmission Network and the General Distribution Networks 2021-2035 restrictions in the 34.5 kilovolt submarine cables that supply Cozumel.
The report indicates that, following overheating failures in 2019, the operating capacity of each cable was reduced from 35 MW to 15.4 MW to extend its lifespan. As a result, the combined transfer limit to the island decreased from 48 MW to 30.8 MW, compared to a peak demand of 42 MW in 2020.
The documentation also indicates that these restrictions made it necessary to resort to 7,238 hours of dispatch of low-efficiency gas turbine generation in Chankanaab to avoid overloads on the submarine links.
This background allows us to understand the scope of Cozumel's structural problem, although the capacities and figures correspond to the historical diagnosis and do not constitute an updated measurement from October 2026.
According to the sources consulted for this article, the connection infrastructure continues to be a limiting factor in meeting the island's demand, forcing a partial reliance on local generation.
As a reference for regional behavior, another graph provided for analysis shows that, during the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026, the Peninsular Regional Control Management recorded an average price of 947 pesos/MWh in the Day-in-Advance Market (MDA).
During that period, the minimum price was 596 pesos/MWh, while the maximum reached 1,321 pesos/MWh. Meanwhile, the Real-Time Market (MTR) showed a weekly average of 1,076 pesos/MWh, with a minimum of 614 pesos/MWh and a maximum of 1,477 pesos/MWh.
Therefore, the value recorded in Cozumel on October 7 is equivalent to approximately 12.3 times the average of the regional daily market of the previous week.
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The comparison allows us to gauge the magnitude of the price signal, although it corresponds to different periods and geographic areas: a specific node versus the regional average. It also doesn't mean that all consumers in Cozumel pay that rate, since the wholesale marginal price is not equivalent to the final electricity rate.
To identify the exact origin of the value, it would be necessary to examine the breakdown of the local marginal price into its energy, congestion, and loss components, as well as the operating conditions recorded during that hour.
Sheinbaum announces new investments as the submarine project moves forward
In light of the difficulties experienced in the Yucatan Peninsula, Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledges that the recent disruptions require strengthening the operating conditions of the infrastructure.
“It was a problem in the transmission, in a transmission tower, which caused several hours of power outages,” the president explained during the October 7 conference, referring to one of the regional blackouts.
In response, the federal government is proposing two main lines of intervention: expanding the supply of natural gas to southeastern Mexico and strengthening existing electricity networks.
“With the connection of a gas pipeline to bring more gas to the peninsula, particularly to Quintana Roo,” Sheinbaum points out when describing one of the planned measures.
The president also highlighted the joint work between the Secretary of Energy, Luz Elena González Escobar, and the director of CFE, Emilia Calleja, to improve the transmission and distribution infrastructure.
The additional supply of natural gas could strengthen the availability of regional electricity generation, but it does not replace the need to increase the capacity of the link between Cozumel and the mainland.
In that regard, there is a significant development for the island. The Cozumel City Council announced on September 17, 2026, that construction was progressing on a new submarine and underground transmission line to connect the island territory with the mainland.
According to the municipal statement, the project had already passed the bidding process and the start of work was scheduled for October 5, 2026, with contractual completion in February 2028. The communication alone does not allow confirmation as to whether the works actually began on the scheduled date.
The mayor of Cozumel, José Luis Chacón Méndez, emphasized that the new connection aims to expand supply capacity to support the island's economic and population growth.
Maintenance, financing and reliability
In addition to the expansion works, CFE identifies operational factors that contribute to power outages in southeastern Mexico.
Among them, the accelerated growth of vegetation stands out, favored by the humid conditions of the region.
“With this, we are already resolving the root causes that we have identified as causing the interruptions,” says Calleja, describing the maintenance and modernization work.
The directive explains that the pruning tasks are part of a strategy coordinated with state governments to reduce the impact on power lines.
It also confirms that weekly meetings are held with regional authorities to identify new infrastructure requirements.
For her part, Sheinbaum insists on the need for regular inspections of the facilities. “Therefore, ongoing pruning and cleaning must be done,” the mayor states, and warns that the interaction of trees, plants, and animals with the facilities can cause service interruptions.
In financial matters, Sheinbaum affirms that CFE has different tools to sustain its investment program.
“CFE has different financing mechanisms,” the president stated, also highlighting the participation of joint projects to expand the capacity of the National Electric System.
“Even this year will end with a surplus,” the president concluded.