The official results of Sunday's Colombian presidential election have been released: with Abelardo de la Espriella receiving 43.73% of the vote and Iván Cepeda 40.91%, the country is headed for a runoff election that will be closely watched by the energy market. The difference of less than three percentage points has postponed the decision until June 21 and has opened a new phase of anticipation for developers, investment funds, and companies that are closely observing the future of Colombia's energy transition.
The presidential runoff will not only determine who will succeed Gustavo Petro. It will also influence the pace of implementation of nearly 1.8 GW of awarded renewable energy projects, the future of new auctions, and Colombia's ability to incorporate the generation capacity needed by the electrical system in the coming years.
The sector arrives at this stage with an agenda full of challenges. More than 5,000 MW remain without financial closure, delays persist in permits and transmission, and various industry players warn of the need to accelerate investments to avoid supply tensions from 2027 onwards.
Beyond their agreement on the need to expand the electricity supply, Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella represent different visions regarding the role that renewable energies should play within the Colombian energy matrix.
Cepeda appears to be the candidate most aligned with the agenda promoted during Gustavo Petro's administration. From Congress, he supported initiatives related to decarbonization, environmental protection, and the prohibition of fracking. His presidential platform proposes accelerating an energy transition that he defines as just, territorial, and democratic, with more active participation of local and indigenous communities in generation projects.
A potential victory for the leader of the Historical Pact would mean the continuation of much of the roadmap for the transition deployed in recent years, although the market remains attentive to the definitions he may adopt regarding the pace of decarbonization and the future of oil and gas exploration.
For his part, De la Espriella proposes a vision more focused on energy security and preserving the role that hydrocarbons currently play in the Colombian economy.
The candidate argues that the country cannot accelerate the reduction of its dependence on oil and gas while renewable technologies still lack sufficient capacity to guarantee supply, reliability, and economic competitiveness. Under this logic, solar and wind energy would continue to grow, but at a pace more closely tied to market conditions than to political or climate objectives.
Regardless of the election outcome, the main immediate challenge will be managing the implementation of the nearly 1.8 GW recently awarded through long-term contracts .
The announcement was interpreted by much of the industry as a positive sign for expanding generation capacity and strengthening system security. However, controversy arose when Gustavo Petro himself publicly questioned some aspects of the process, creating uncertainty in a segment of the market.
The controversy exposed differences within the government regarding the design of future auctions, the role of the state, and the importance that private investment should have in energy development.
The next administration must quickly send clear signals about the continuity of the contracting mechanisms and the regulatory framework that will accompany the renewable expansion over the next few years.
Continuity or change regarding Petro's energy legacy
The second round will also function as an indirect plebiscite on the energy policy promoted by Gustavo Petro.
Over the past few years, the government has made progress in new contracting mechanisms, promoted renewable energy expansion, and placed the energy transition at the center of the national debate. However, questions have also arisen regarding the effective execution of projects, infrastructure delays, and regulatory tensions that have impacted investment decisions.
In that context, a potential presidency by Cepeda would represent a conceptual continuity of the current strategy , while a victory for De la Espriella could translate into a greater openness towards hydrocarbons and a review of some of the priorities established by the outgoing administration.
For developers, the discussion no longer revolves solely around political support for renewable energy. The focus has shifted to the next government's actual capacity to translate announcements, awards, and regulations into projects that are actually built.
The election results will also be closely watched by international banks, investment funds, and developers.
Colombia competes with other Latin American markets to attract capital destined for energy infrastructure , so regulatory stability, contractual predictability and legal certainty appear as determining factors to sustain the flow of investments.
The concern is significant. The country needs to add new generation capacity to meet growing demand and avoid strain on the electrical grid in the coming years.
In a market where capital compares opportunities among different Latin American countries, any sign of uncertainty can affect financing decisions and alter strategic investment schedules for supply expansion.
Safety before speeches: the sector's demand
During an interview on the "It had to be said and it was said" streaming program of Energía Estratégica, Juan José Angulo , founder of AMC Principal, avoided endorsing a specific candidate, although he maintained that the main attribute the industry needs is security to invest, build infrastructure and execute projects.
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In that regard, he stated that "the candidate who most reinforces the notion of security will be a strategic ally of renewables."
Angulo explained that renewable energies have already demonstrated their potential within the Colombian system, but warned that they now need networks, transmission, permits and financing to complete their maturation stage.
"Renewables need transmission, connection, clear rules, permits, financing and execution capacity," he said.
He indicated that auctions and regulatory incentives are valuable tools, but insufficient if they are not accompanied by infrastructure, transmission, and execution capacity.
"It's not enough for a candidate to say they are in favor of renewables. The point is whether they can create the conditions for the projects to materialize," he added.
According to the specialist, one of the main lessons of the last decade is that a significant part of the awards and regulatory signals failed to translate into operational infrastructure.
"The electricity industry cannot be solved solely on paper," he argued during the analysis.
The industry's warnings are supported by the figures recently presented by SER Colombia .
The association estimated that the country needs to add at least 6,000 MW over the next five years , through investments of around USD 5 billion , to avoid supply risks from 2027 onwards.
However, renewable energy expansion continues to face structural difficulties. Currently, there are over 300 pending applications , with delays in some cases reaching 2,000 days , while 5,086 MW remain without financial closure .
"Colombia does not have a problem of lack of investor interest, but rather of execution," said Alexandra Hernández , executive president of SER Colombia.
The leader believes that the next government must expedite permits, connections, transmission infrastructure, and mechanisms to restore investor confidence.
In addition, the union requested streamlining the electrical infrastructure, reviewing wholesale market signals, strengthening legal stability, and facilitating the advancement of energy storage and self-generation projects.
In addition to the execution of the awarded projects, the next administration will inherit other strategic discussions.
These include the upcoming auction of long-term contracts for renewable energy, the expansion of energy storage, the development of remote self-generation, and the mechanisms needed to guarantee reliability in the face of possible extreme weather events.
The discussion becomes even more relevant considering that Colombia could face supply tensions in the coming years if the expansion of supply fails to keep pace with the growth in demand.
In parallel, the electrification of transport, the growth of data centers and the advancement of artificial intelligence are beginning to consolidate as new vectors of electricity consumption that will increase the pressure on the system.
Beyond the ideological differences between Cepeda and De la Espriella, the energy market agrees on one diagnosis: the renewable transition has already begun and is unlikely to reverse.
The discussion is no longer about whether Colombia will incorporate more renewable energy. The challenge lies in transforming awarded projects into effective generation before the system's needs exceed available capacity.
In that sense, the runoff election will define much more than a change of administration. It will determine whether the country moves toward a stage of maturity in its renewable energy market, based on implementation, transmission, and regulatory certainty, or whether the obstacles that have slowed the deployment of new energy capacity in recent years will continue.
Along those lines, Angulo summarized one of the industry's main demands: "The energy transition isn't done solely through regulations. It's done through action."