Brazil is beginning to pinpoint one of the region's largest renewable resources with greater precision. The Energy Research Company (EPE) has identified three hotspots for offshore wind energy , located between Piauí and Rio Grande do Norte, off the coast of Rio de Janeiro, and from southern Santa Catarina to Rio Grande do Sul.
This data takes on added significance given the size of the potential market. The Brazil Offshore Wind Roadmap , published by EPE itself in 2020 and reiterated in its new Technical Note, estimates around 700 GW of technical potential in areas with depths of up to 50 meters and more than 900 GW if the limit is extended to 100 meters .
The new development is that this potential is beginning to acquire greater territorial and temporal detail. After studying hourly data between 2008 and 2017 , the agency divided the coastal resource into 20 clusters , based on similarities in wind speed, direction, and daily and seasonal behavior.
For the market, the analysis goes beyond simply identifying where the winds are strongest. The results allow for the differentiation of areas with greater predictability, distinct seasonality, and very different probabilities of exceeding 9 m/s —variables relevant for the initial energy assessments of future developments.
Northeast takes the lead in speed and predictability
The first hotspot encompasses clusters 4 to 8, between Piauí and Rio Grande do Norte , and presents the most striking combination in the study. Its average speeds range from 8.77 to 9.22 m/s , while the average maximums within some clusters reach 9.63 m/s .
Cluster 8 stands out with an average of 9.22 m/s , the highest in the group, and a 46.5% probability of registering speeds equal to or greater than 9 m/s . In clusters 4 to 7, that possibility remains between 39.5% and 43.5%.
But the Northeast doesn't just win in terms of intensity. The EPE highlights that this area experiences more consistent winds in both speed and direction , which increases the resource's predictability compared to other areas of the country. Weibull shape factors are also higher in the North and Northeast, indicating less dispersion around the mean.
The downside is a marked seasonality . Between August and October, monthly averages can approach 11 m/s , while between March and May they drop to around 6 m/s . During the day, several clusters reach their highest speeds during the night and early morning.
This information opens up a second interpretation for developers and planners: not all offshore megawatts would have the same generation profile . The temporal distribution of the resource could become as important as the average speed when evaluating complementarity with other technologies and its behavior within the electrical system.
Rio de Janeiro is the second point of interest. Cluster 15 , located on the northeastern coast of the state, reaches an average speed of 8.33 m/s , with points moving between 6.50 and 8.59 m/s and a 35.7% probability of exceeding 9 m/s .
Here another operational profile emerges. The average monthly wind speed is around 7 m/s between March and June , but rises to approximately 10 m/s between July and February . Furthermore, the EPE detects a predominance of winds from the northeast and little intraday variation.
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This information is particularly interesting because Rio de Janeiro has already begun to transform into a testing ground for the industry. Petrobras is moving forward with an 18 MW offshore pilot project off the coast of São João da Barra , for which Fugro is conducting a geotechnical survey involving soil sampling, in-situ testing, and studies related to cable routing. The work is being carried out throughout 2026, and the final report is expected in 2027.
The South completes the map, although with a different risk profile.
The third major zone extends from southern Santa Catarina to Rio Grande do Sul . There, Cluster 20 has an average speed of 8.72 m/s , with points between 6.55 and 9.35 m/s , while the probability of exceeding 9 m/s reaches 39.6% .
The EPE also notes that average speeds are concentrated mainly between 8 and 9.5 m/s and tend to increase with distance from the coast. However, this hotspot exhibits greater dispersion of speeds and directions than the Northeast, implying a less predictable resource.
Its advantage lies in its seasonal stability. The strongest winds occur between July and November , while the lowest are recorded between January and April, but the average variation throughout the year is only around 2 m/s . On a daily basis, Cluster 20 is also among the most consistent analyzed by the agency.
To arrive at these results, the EPE compared ERA5, MERRA-2, and Global Wind Atlas . All three models agree on the existence of the main wind corridors, although they show regional differences: ERA5 and MERRA-2 are more optimistic in the Northeast, while Global Wind Atlas yields higher values in parts of the Southeast and South.
Finally, the entity opted for ERA5 for clustering because it combines long-term hourly time series with better spatial resolution than MERRA-2. The analysis was carried out at a height of 150 meters , a reference point closer to the current dimensions of offshore turbines, and excluded areas with depths greater than 1,000 meters .
The map also appears after years of growing business interest. In December 2024, when the Brazilian Senate approved the bill seeking to establish the framework for the activity, there were around 100 project applications representing more than 230 GW of capacity.
That process began to take on a more concrete dimension during 2026. Petrobras selected Fugro to carry out the geotechnical campaign for its Rio de Janeiro offshore wind pilot project , an 18 MW initiative that became the first development of its kind in South America to advance under a formal environmental licensing process.
The work includes soil sampling, in-situ testing, and laboratory analysis at four coastal and shallow-water locations , as well as onshore investigations related to the laying and routing of the connecting cable. Work began in April, will continue through the third quarter of 2026, and the final geotechnical report is expected in 2027.
However, 900 GW of technical potential does not equate to 900 GW of commercially developable capacity , nor do the three hotspots represent an automatic selection of sites. Depth, electrical grid connection, port infrastructure, environmental restrictions, coexistence of maritime uses, costs, and licensing conditions must still be considered.
EPE itself points out another key limitation: Brazil still lacks sufficient publicly available on-site measurements of offshore wind resources . Therefore, reanalysis models need to be validated with local surveys before supporting specific investment decisions.