Brazil already operates 74.31 GW of solar photovoltaic capacity , equivalent to 27.4% of an electricity matrix of 270.81 GW , and the question is how to sustain the expansion towards 2030.
The debate took center stage during the celebration of JinkoSolar's 20th anniversary , which took advantage of The Smarter E South America 2026 to present Tiger Neo 3.0, BESS solutions and discuss the sector's upcoming challenges.
Alberto Cuter, Vice President for Latin America and Italy at JinkoSolar , put the technological evolution into perspective: the efficiency of the modules went from 9%-10% in 2009 to the current 25% , while costs fell drastically.
But Brazil's next leap no longer depends solely on the cost and performance of the equipment; rather, during the Jinko Solar meeting, industry leaders anticipated a strong expansion of consumption over the next five to ten years, accompanied by the electrification of the economy and electric mobility.
“We have room to grow in solar energy generation here in Brazil. However, one of the challenges we face is undoubtedly curtailment. This has eliminated all the predictability that investors had regarding solar energy investments,” said Leonardo Machado, Operations Director of Echoenergia.
The discussion is relevant in a Brazilian market that already has 51.69 GW of distributed micro and mini generation and 22.62 GW of centralized generation , with photovoltaics currently being the second largest source of installed capacity in the country, only behind hydroelectric power.
With this penetration, the conditions for adding projects are different than they were five years ago. The resource remains abundant, but transmission, curtailment, price signals, and flexibility are increasingly conditioning asset structuring, considering that in 2025, solar and wind curtailments were around 20% .
“ We are investing, we have invested in Brazil. When we decide to invest in a country, we stay in the country and continue with that. Now, how fast that investment will be depends on how those decisions are made ,” said Adil Chenaf, CEO of Nebras Power.
While supply faces constraints, the increase in energy demand, mainly linked to data centers and other technologies, appears as one of the supports for new projects until 2030.
At the same time, Marcio Takata, CEO of Greener , also expects strong growth in consumption over the next five to ten years.
“I assure you that the future will be solar. In the long term, this is becoming clear. We are witnessing a very important evolution in the solar energy value chain, especially in the last 12 years. This crucial chain generates between 50 and 60 billion reais annually. In the next two years, we observe a trend of accumulation in the solar energy market,” he stated.
Distributed generation will be another driving force. Despite having 51.69 GW already operational , the private sector believes there is still considerable room for growth thanks to the electrification of demand.
“ The market has a lot of room for growth. To expect people to have quality electricity in their homes, with the growth that is coming, is absurd ,” said Maykon Torres, CEO of Fortlev.
According to Torres, the relationship between consumption, tariffs, taxes, transmission, and supply costs will continue to favor self-generation.
“I think Brazil hasn’t even started yet. I firmly believe that in Brazil this is partly due to financial viability and partly due to necessity, as there will be a lot of growth,” he added.
Storage completes another piece for the next cycle. Brazil will hold its first stand-alone BESS auctions in December: the process, which has already registered 6,091 projects for 296 GW, will be divided into a call with a minimum national content requirement, scheduled for December 2 , and the call without that limitation for December 4 .
The size of the pipeline, combined with the spillage levels, allows for further deployment beyond the initial tender. Industry representatives have already suggested maintaining annual calls for bids .
Thus, by 2030, the continuity of the market is tied to two simultaneous movements: creating new loads capable of absorbing more electricity and expanding the flexibility and infrastructure needed to integrate new assets .
JinkoSolar: from 100 GW global to 3 TW and the new weight of bankability
The Brazilian scenario unfolds in an industry that has multiplied its scale in just over a decade. JinkoSolar began in 2006 as a manufacturer and moved into cell and module production in 2009.
Falling costs and increased efficiency accompanied the growth of installations. In 2012, global photovoltaic capacity was 100 GW , and it only reached 1 TW in 2022.
Then it only took two years to add another TW and reach 2 TW in 2024 .
“Now, it’s mid-2026 and we’ve already reached 3 TW. This has also been an incredible success for the entire photovoltaic industry,” highlighted the Vice President of JinkoSolar.
The company also reached 400 GW sold globally , according to Cuter.
With increasingly efficient and competitive modules, the discussion surrounding new assets is also shifting towards manufacturers' ability to support projects throughout their lifecycle. Furthermore, the exit of manufacturers from the market has made this a key factor for developers and financiers.
“There were many events and many companies that left the market, all related to financial solvency. Jinko is one of the manufacturers with the largest banking presence in the world,” Cuter commented.
“But being a leader doesn’t just mean being one in terms of ability. Jinko is also a leader in terms of bank solvency and also in terms of image,” he added.
The presentation of Tiger Neo 3.0 and BESS solutions during its 20th anniversary celebration coincides with the change that Brazil is going through: the reduction of costs and the technological improvement of the module have already allowed it to reach scale; now growth demands solving how to integrate more production.
Looking ahead to 2030, the vectors are identified: increased consumption due to electrification, mobility and artificial intelligence; continued distributed generation; almost 297 GW of interest in BESS; transmission expansion; effective connections and curtailment reduction.