The Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) redefines the schedule of its mixed call for bids and confirms that the competitive process will culminate on June 8 with the signing of contracts, in a context of strong competition and increasing financial demands.
The updated schedule sets April 28 as the date for the expression of interest , the receipt of proposals between April 21 and May 11 , the verification and opening on May 12 , the evaluation from May 13 to 19 , the subsequent proposals from May 20 to 21 , the decision on May 25 and the delivery of guarantees of seriousness on June 5 .
This last point stands out as one of the most sensitive milestones in the process, as it forces participants to immobilize capital a few days before the contract signing, raising the bar for developers with less financial backing.
In parallel, the availability of official information, including site visit reports and question and answer sessions, introduces a central element for the market: transparency as a factor of certainty for investment decision-making.
In parallel, the availability of official information introduces a key element for the market: transparency as a factor of certainty for investment decision-making. Through the process portal ( https://scoee.cfe.mx/Portal/Procedure/Details ), interested parties can consult key documentation such as site visit reports, question and answer sessions, and progress updates , which strengthens visibility and reduces risks for participants.
The magnitude of the competition explains the relevance of these conditions.
The call for proposals has garnered 222 offers totaling 37,749 MW, representing an oversupply of more than 580% compared to the 7,500 MW required. Within this pool, solar projects predominate with 26,494 MW distributed across 178 projects, followed by 34 wind power initiatives totaling 9,324 MW, in addition to hybrid and energy storage projects.
This scenario also allows us to identify the players with the largest portfolio volume, among which GTE Energy, Thermion, Cubico Sustainable Investments, Fisterra Energy, Proyener, AES México, Terralia, Grupo Cobra and Cox Energy stand out , all with portfolios that in many cases exceed one gigawatt of offered capacity, consolidating a competitive map dominated by large developers.
In economic terms, the market is beginning to converge toward a significantly higher price range than that observed in previous auctions. "The vast majority expect it to be above $35 ," stated Alejandro Robles Hue , director of Moctezuma Sustainable Resources, who also explained that " It will be a combination of factors: the location of your project, whether there is a positive outlook regarding the PML curve, and that will allow you to be more aggressive in your bidding ."
The changing financial landscape is a determining factor in this new pricing structure. We cannot expect the prices we once saw in those auctions.
Interest rates back then were substantially lower, today they are considerably higher and that is one of the main costs of the project, the executive warned, while underlining the impact of the new technical requirements: Seso is CAPEX, you have to recover that , referring to the obligation to incorporate storage equivalent to 30% for three hours.
The mixed scheme design also introduces new commercial dynamics that could define the awarding of the contract. "You already have 70% contracted by CFE, and you can take the risk on the other 30% ," Robles stated, explaining that there will be areas where the price will be high, allowing companies to offer lower bids to CFE and eliminate competition, while in other locations , they can take a certain market risk and see how high they can push the price to the Commission .
The maturity of projects emerges as another critical factor in a scenario of extreme oversupply. In this regard, Arturo Carranza , Director of Energy Projects at Akza Advisors, pointed out that developments with greater progress in permitting, grid access, and financial structuring will have an advantage, positioning players such as AES México, Atlas Renewable Energy, Invenergy, and Cubico among the best positioned.
The updated schedule is also part of a broader strategy by the Mexican government to accelerate the addition of renewable capacity.
In that context, the preparation of a second call for bids aimed at private companies was recently announced, in line with the one launched last December, in which 3.3 GW of clean capacity were awarded along with 1.2 GW of battery storage .
"We will be just one call for bids away from covering the nearly 16,500 MW of renewable energy that we need for this six-year term," stated Undersecretary Jorge Marcial Islas Samperio.
With this new timeline, the process enters its most decisive phase, where not only will the price of energy be defined, but also the actual feasibility of the projects. The combination of strong guarantees, massive competition, technical requirements, and greater institutional transparency will determine the outcome of a bidding process that redefines the rules of the Mexican renewable energy market.