The National Energy Commission (CNE) updated its projections for supplying regulated customers in Chile and revised downwards a large part of the expected electricity demand in the long term.
The difference compared to the 2025 Final Tender Report reaches a maximum of 2231 GWh per year in 2039 , although the new scenario does not change a key signal for the market: in 2031 it will be necessary to hold a new short-term supply tender .
The change stems from the Preliminary Report on Electricity Supply Tenders 2026. For 2039, the Commission now estimates regulated demand at 42,952 GWh , compared to the 45,183 GWh it had projected in its 2025 report. The difference equates to 2.23 TWh less , approximately 4.9%.
The adjustment begins gradually in the early years and expands from the middle of the next decade. By 2026, the forecast has been revised from 31,825 to 31,585 GWh ; by 2031 it remains practically unchanged, decreasing from 33,997 to 33,969 GWh ; while in 2038 it falls from 43,502 to 41,290 GWh , a difference of 2,212 GWh. The exception is 2030, when the new estimate is 261 GWh higher than the previous one.
Source: Preliminary Report on Electricity Supply Tenders (CNE)
Less demand, but the signal for 2031 remains.
The review, however, is not enough to eliminate the need for new contracts. The report shows a marked change by 2031 , when distributors will have accumulated a deficit of 4,538 GWh compared to just 8 GWh of surplus available to compensate for it.
The gap is concentrated mainly in CGE, with 1696 GWh , and Enel Distribución, with 1628 GWh . Shortages also appear for Frontel (240 GWh), Saesa (209 GWh), Chilquinta (181 GWh), and Copelec (164 GWh), among other companies.
Given these figures, the CNE expressly concludes that by 2031 "it is necessary to hold a new short-term supply tender" , because the available surpluses are not enough to cover the projected deficit.
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The need to contract energy for 2031 is not a new issue in this report . The final document from 2025 already included in its reference planning a process to be awarded in 2027 for 5050 GWh/year of baseload power , with supply starting in 2031. At that time, the CNE (National Energy Commission) warned that the needs could be met through tenders with contracts of varying durations and that the final volume would be defined later in the tender specifications.
The two figures are not directly comparable: the 5050 GWh corresponded to a reference projection of the base component to be tendered, while the current 4538 GWh represent the aggregate supply deficit estimated for the distributors.
The 2026 update, therefore, confirms this need with the new demand and contracting projections and specifies the use of a short-term tender .
Source: Preliminary Report on Electricity Supply Tenders (CNE)
The 2026/01 covers the previous step
Before this new process, the market is focused on the 2026/01 Supply Tender , currently underway. The tender covers 2,835 GWh of energy , divided between a block of 1,575 GWh/year with supply starting in 2029 and another of 1,260 GWh/year starting in 2030 , both through 15-year contracts.
These volumes had already been defined previously and, therefore, are not new to the report now published . The new analysis determines that between 2026 and 2028 there is no need to open additional short-term processes because the overall surpluses exceed the shortages, while for 2029 and 2030 it recommends continuing with the 2026/01 process to maintain the contracting capacity sought by the regulator.
From 2032 onwards, the situation becomes strained again. Considering only the base components of existing contracts, the CNE projects deficits of 8,348 GWh in 2032, 14,604 GWh in 2033, and 20,229 GWh in 2034. The gap continues to widen in subsequent years, in parallel with the reduction of existing contractual coverage, so the agency anticipates that new long-term bidding processes will need to be developed.
The Preliminary Report is now open for comments before the CNE prepares its final version. But the first indication of the update is clear: Chile expects lower regulated demand than projected a year ago for the long term, although this adjustment does not change the fact that 2031 remains the next critical point for electricity supply contracts.