China launched its renewable development strategy for the 15th Five-Year Plan , corresponding to the period 2026-2030 , with a goal of around 3500 GW installed by the end of the decade and a change of focus: planning not only pursues more power, but also greater reliability, integration into the electricity system and replacement of fossil fuels.
The new roadmap established that renewable generation must reach approximately 6,000 TWh annually by 2030. In parallel, the combined capacity of wind and solar energy will exceed 2,800 GW , accounting for more than 50% of all installed electrical power and contributing at least 30% of national production.
The leap involves incorporating around 1160 GW of renewables compared to the 2340 GW registered as a reference for 2025. Total production will advance from around 4000 TWh to 6000 TWh, while wind and photovoltaic will increase their combined contribution from 2300 TWh to more than 4000 TWh.
The roadmap also comes amid intense pressure on China's photovoltaic industry , which is struggling with overcapacity, falling prices, and shrinking margins. In this context, the government has proposed new parameters for evaluating modules based on their climate adaptability, reliability, conversion efficiency, and environmental attributes, in line with a shift from volume-driven growth to competition based on technological quality.
The document structured this new phase around scaling up, improving quality, and reliable replacement . The priority will be to build assets capable of supporting supply during the most demanding periods, as well as increasing the volume of emission-free generation.
Wind and solar power will need to take on a greater role during peak summer and winter hours , reducing pressure on conventional sources and strengthening their contribution to security of supply.
More than 2800 GW of wind and solar power, but with firmness requirements
Wind and solar power will lead the projected growth until 2030. Both technologies must exceed 2800 GW installed and produce more than 4000 TWh per year, compared to the 1840 GW and 2300 TWh taken as a baseline for 2025.
The new plan added a strategic condition: installed capacity must be transformed into reliable power for the grid . The national average firm capacity of wind and solar farms, including locally built storage, will reach 8%.
The indicator will be close to 11% for wind assets and 6% for photovoltaic assets . This ratio represents the power that the installations can guarantee during critical periods, calculated with a 95% confidence level.
New centralized projects must, as a general principle, have a minimum firm capacity of 10%. In sites with better technical and resource conditions, the authorities will promote configurations capable of exceeding 20%.
Wind and solar power generation will also need to cover more than 20% of the electricity consumed during peak nighttime hours in summer and winter . This share will increase by around ten percentage points compared to the level considered in the official assessment.
To meet this goal, China will add more than 300 GW of reliable renewable energy capacity over the next five years to meet peak demand . This calculation will include the combined contribution of power plants and associated energy storage systems.
The strategy will integrate hybrid power plants, on-site storage, pumped hydro, concentrated solar thermal, and biomass . These solutions will compensate for the variability of wind and solar resources and increase their contribution during peak demand.
Pumped hydropower will play a central role in this process. China projects to increase its capacity from 66 GW in 2025 to around 160 GW in 2030, with approximately 100 GW of additional capacity coming online during that period.
The government will promote pumped storage configurations associated with renewable energy complexes in the large bases of the north, northwest, and northeast. It will also study smaller-scale installations linked to distributed generation and networks near consumption centers.
The planning will shift flexible loads to times of peak clean energy production using price signals, demand response programs, virtual plants, microgrids, and technologies for interaction between electric vehicles and the grid.
Data centers are also listed as manageable energy consumption. The program aims to coordinate digital infrastructure with new renewable generation , direct green electricity connections, and integrated generation, grid, demand, and storage systems.
China expands its large bases and adds 300 GW distributed
The territorial expansion will combine large centralized complexes with generation close to consumption. The wind and solar power plants in the so-called "Three Norths" regions will add more than 370 GW over the five-year period.
Development will be concentrated in desert areas, arid lands and Gobi zones, with projects in Xinjiang, the upper reaches of the Yellow River, the Hexi corridor, northern Hebei and the Songliao region.
Some of these facilities will export electricity to major demand areas , while other complexes will supply energy-intensive industries, data centers, production hubs, and renewable fuel plants.
The plan will also link energy infrastructure with environmental restoration. China will promote photovoltaic projects to combat desertification in the Qaidam Basin, the Hexi Corridor, the Taklamakan region, and the Yellow River Grand Arc.
In parallel, distributed generation will add more than 300 GW between 2026 and 2030. Its deployment will cover industrial parks, economic zones, mining operations, public buildings, housing, agricultural areas, and transport infrastructure.
The program will integrate renewables into roads and logistics corridors, develop zero-carbon highways , and combine distributed generation with charging points, storage, and flexible connection technologies.
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In the building sector, China will promote photovoltaic projects integrated into new public buildings and support households that install systems on rooftops, patios, or their own residential land.
The strategy will also strengthen rural generation through microgrids in towns and municipalities, networks adapted to distributed production and systems capable of combining electricity, heat, cooling and renewable fuels .
Offshore wind, hydroelectricity and solar thermal
China plans to start construction of around 100 GW of offshore wind power during the next five years and exceed 100 GW cumulatively in operation by 2030.
The developments will be spread across the Bohai, Yellow, East China, and South China Seas. The portfolio will include nearshore projects and deep-water bases located far offshore.
The marine complexes will be integrated with ocean energy, photovoltaics, desalination, aquaculture, and underwater data processing centers . The document also proposed exploring the construction of energy islands.
Conventional hydropower will reach approximately 410 GW , while the total capacity of the segment, including pumped storage, will approach 570 GW in 2030.
The country will advance in integrated water, wind and solar projects, where reservoirs will function as regulatory tools to smooth out variable production and improve the utilization of transmission networks.
Concentrated solar power (CSP) capacity will grow from 1.82 GW in 2025 to approximately 15 GW in 2030. Its thermal storage will allow for the delivery of dispatchable electricity and provide support for large wind and solar power plants.
Ocean energy will have a target of around 400 MW installed , using technologies linked to currents, waves and thermal gradients of the sea.
Renewable hydrogen will increase its scale eightfold.
One of the main changes in the plan will occur outside the electricity sector. China will increase its non-electrical uses of renewable energy from 60 million tons of coal equivalent in 2025 to about 150 million tons in 2030.
The target represents a 150% increase over the starting level and will cover industrial heat, heating, fuels, green raw materials and transport applications.
As part of this strategy, domestic renewable hydrogen production will increase from 250,000 tons to 2 million tons annually . This target represents an eightfold increase over the projected scale between 2025 and 2030.
The plan will promote integrated green hydrogen, ammonia and methanol bases, defined according to the availability of wind, solar radiation, water, carbon sources and transport infrastructure.
Northeast China will see a concentration of projects primarily focused on export supply. Other complexes will be located along the Yellow River Delta, in the north of the country, and in the foothills of the Tianshan Mountains, closer to consumption centers.
The authorities will promote electrolyzers that are weakly connected to the grid or completely isolated , with the ability to adapt their operation to the variable availability of wind and photovoltaic power.
The deployment will be accompanied by storage, transport, supply, and transfer infrastructure. Ports and airports will be prioritized for the supply of hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and other green fuels.
These fuels will supply processes in the chemical, metallurgical, transportation, power generation, and energy storage industries . The document also considered hydrogen blends in applications that currently use natural gas.
New rules for the renewable energy market
The rollout will be accompanied by regulatory changes. China will expand minimum renewable energy consumption targets for energy-intensive industries and create specific systems to measure non-electrical energy uses.
The program will support multi-year power purchase agreements, aggregated participation of distributed resources, and the development of operators specializing in clean power plants.
The national green certificate system will also be strengthened, with long-term operations, exchanges between provinces and greater coordination between the electricity, carbon and origin guarantees markets.
The planning will improve remuneration mechanisms for flexible resources, including pumped hydro, storage, and sources capable of providing reliable capacity to the system .
Artificial intelligence will be applied in weather forecasting, production forecasting, maintenance, joint operation, and business decision-making.
China will also prioritize grid-forming technologies, extreme-weather wind turbines, floating platforms, perovskite tandem solar cells, and flexible hydrogen production .
With its new plan, the "green giant" will move from an expansion based primarily on volume to a strategy focused on the systemic value of renewables .
The 3500 GW reflects the scale of the growth, while the firmness, storage, electrification, renewable heat and hydrogen production targets anticipate a deeper transformation of China's energy and industrial system .