The Colombian government has raised a new alarm about the country's energy security. Through Circular 40023, the Ministry of Mines and Energy requested that the Energy and Gas Regulatory Commission (CREG) urgently review the rules of the Reliability Charge (CxC) auction , with the aim of incorporating more generation capacity and avoiding supply shortages in the face of increasing energy scarcity.
The official warning is based on a deterioration in the Firm Energy for Reliability Charge (ENFICC) balance, which shows an estimated deficit of 1.97 TWh-year for the period between December 2025 and November 2026. The gap would widen to 3.9 TWh-year in the following cycle, increasing the pressure on the National Interconnected System (SIN).
The situation is further complicated by new climate forecasts. According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 95% probability that a new El Niño event will develop starting in June 2026, a scenario that could once again compromise water availability and strain electricity supply in a system highly dependent on hydroelectric power.
Given this situation, the Ministry requested an expansion of the pool of eligible participants in the reliability auction and modifications to regulatory restrictions that currently limit the supply of firm energy. Among the points raised was CREG Resolution 101 of 2007, which restricts the participation of existing plants undergoing expansion. According to the official analysis, this condition excluded some of the firm energy that could be provided by strategic generation projects such as Hidroituango.
Another key aspect of the regulatory discussion concerns the economic methodology used in the process. The energy ministry proposed reviewing the eligibility calculations to reflect the recent surge in the scarcity price, a key variable in the Reliability Charge scheme.
International fuel volatility, driven by geopolitical tension in the Middle East, raised the price of Brent crude and dragged down the scarcity price in Colombia, which went from levels close to $800/kWh in March to $1,006.9/kWh in April.
The government maintains that this variation directly impacted the auction, since some thermal plants were evaluated with parameters prior to the adjustment, which would have artificially reduced their competitiveness and limited the amount of resources available to cover future demand.
With this proposal, the Ministry seeks to have the CREG enable mechanisms to immediately incorporate the additional energy required by the system, as well as generate incentives that ensure the availability of generation during possible periods of drought.
The discussion reopens the debate on the regulatory flexibility of the Colombian electricity market at a time when climate signals and international volatility are once again testing the resilience of the system.