Colombia will elect a president this Sunday amid one of the most sensitive moments for its electricity market. The recent awarding of nearly 1.8 GW of new renewable capacity through contracts of up to 20 years opened a new phase for investment, but also exposed divisions within the government itself after Gustavo Petro publicly questioned the auction promoted by the Ministry of Mines and Energy.
With projects under construction, new calls for proposals under discussion, and the need to incorporate generation to guarantee the reliability of the system, the election result will have a direct impact on the pace of development of solar and wind energy over the next few years.
Iván Cepeda, Paloma Valencia, and Abelardo de la Espriella enter the election with differing views on the role of renewables, private sector participation, local communities, and the design of the energy transition. While the candidate from the Historic Pact leads in most polls, his competitors propose greater market liberalization and a stronger defense of gas and oil.
Who is in the best position going into election Sunday?
Various polls published in recent months place Iván Cepeda as the candidate with the best chance of winning the election. The senator from the Historical Pact leads in most of the surveys and appears to be the leader most aligned with the climate agenda promoted during Gustavo Petro's administration.
Following them are Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia , who agree in questioning aspects of current energy policy, although with different approaches regarding the role that renewables should play within the energy matrix.
For the sector, the outcome of the election takes on added significance because the next government will have to manage the commissioning of recently awarded projects, define new market signals, and resolve the tensions that persist around future auctions.
Cepeda leads in the polls and promises to deepen Petro's model.
Of the main candidates, Iván Cepeda is the one who offers the greatest continuity with respect to the energy policy promoted by the current Government.
The senator has no direct experience in managing energy projects, but he has supported much of Gustavo Petro's climate agenda from Congress. During his legislative career, he backed initiatives related to banning fracking, decarbonizing the economy, and strengthening regulatory frameworks for environmental protection.
His presidential program proposes to accelerate an energy transition that he defines as "just, territorial and democratic" , promoting the expansion of solar and wind projects with more active participation of local and indigenous communities.
Aída Quilcué 's candidacy for vice president strengthens precisely this territorial component. The proposal aims to ensure that the regions where projects are being developed participate more directly in the economic benefits derived from the investments.
For developers and investment funds, a potential Cepeda presidency would mean the continuation of much of the roadmap implemented in recent years. However, questions remain about the pace of decarbonization and the future of oil and gas exploration.
Valencia seeks to accelerate projects and maintain gas as a backup.
Paloma Valencia proposes an expansion of renewable energies without abandoning the conventional sources that today sustain a large part of the generation and tax revenues of the country.
The leader of the Democratic Center built her connection with the sector through legislative debates related to energy security, infrastructure development, and the delays faced by wind and solar projects in La Guajira.
One of its main criticisms points to the regulatory, environmental and social difficulties that have postponed investments considered strategic for the Colombian electricity system.
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Their proposal combines the addition of new renewable energy capacity with an explicit defense of natural gas as a transition fuel. It also promotes mechanisms designed to facilitate private investment, reduce administrative burdens, and accelerate project implementation.
The presence of Juan Daniel Oviedo as the vice-presidential candidate seeks to reinforce the technical profile of the campaign and convey predictability to the markets.
From a business perspective, a potential Valencian government could translate into greater incentives to unlock investments and streamline processes that currently represent one of the main bottlenecks for the development of new solar and wind farms.
De la Espriella prioritizes hydrocarbons and energy security
Abelardo de la Espriella represents the most critical stance towards the energy course adopted by the Government of Gustavo Petro.
The lawyer and businessman argues that Colombia cannot rapidly reduce its dependence on hydrocarbons while renewable technologies do not have the necessary capacity to guarantee supply and economic competitiveness.
His professional background is not directly linked to the electricity sector. However, the addition of José Manuel Restrepo as a vice-presidential candidate brings experience in economic matters, infrastructure financing, and attracting investment.
The campaign's vision focuses on preserving energy sovereignty and avoiding decisions that could affect production, employment, or market confidence.
Under this scheme, solar and wind energy would continue to grow, but at a pace defined mainly by the evolution of demand and economic conditions, rather than by political or climate objectives.
The 1.8 GW auction becomes a test for the next government
Beyond the differences between candidates, all will have to face a scenario marked by the recent awarding of almost 1.8 GW of new renewable capacity .
The reliability charge auction was interpreted by much of the industry as a positive sign for expanding generation capacity and strengthening the security of the electricity system. The awarded projects secured long-term contracts that provide predictability for financing and investment execution.
However, the process became the focus of discussion after Gustavo Petro publicly questioned some aspects of the call for proposals, generating uncertainty in part of the market.
The controversy not only exposed differences within the government, but also reopened the debate on the design of future auctions, the role of the state in energy planning, and the degree of involvement the private sector should have.
In parallel, the Executive made progress on modifications related to new contracting mechanisms and criteria for future calls for tenders, a discussion that will now be left to the next administration.
The presidential election will define much more than a change of government. It will also determine the speed and manner in which Colombia will continue to add new power generation capacity over the next decade.