The competition to attract energy investment in Central America is already beginning to show some winners. While Honduras continues to redefine the framework under which it will seek to move forward with its long-awaited 1500 MW tender, Guatemala and Panama have positioned themselves with concrete processes, competitive economic signals, and greater regulatory certainty for foreign capital.
Industry sources with direct knowledge of the regional market agree that this difference in timing ultimately worked against Honduras, in a context where international developers not only evaluate the available renewable resources or the size of the market, but also the speed of execution, institutional stability, and regulatory guarantees before deciding where to invest. One of these sources bluntly summarises the situation: “Guatemala took the investors we were actually looking for in Honduras. They stole our thunder.”
Guatemala was one of the countries that best capitalised on this dynamic. The PEG-5 tender awarded 1258 MW, of which 900 MW corresponded to renewable technologies, equivalent to 73% of the total, while solar energy with storage accounted for 671 MW, close to 55% of all awarded capacity and more than 70% of the renewable block, consolidating a clear commitment to hybrid solutions that are now gaining prominence in the region.
RELIVE FES GUATEMALA 2026: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fQIrVqwZYk
This volume was further bolstered by a strong economic signal. Single-unit electricity prices near USD 101/MWh strengthened the competitiveness of the Guatemalan market and solidified an attractive scenario for developers who already see the country as a platform for regional growth. Far from being an isolated process, Guatemala is already anticipating further developments: the National Electric Energy Commission (CNEE) confirmed that it is preparing PEG-6, a new call for bids aimed at incorporating approximately 300 MW of firm energy, further expanding the investment pipeline.
Even in transmission, a segment historically more complex due to its execution risks and territorial conflicts, Guatemala managed to maintain signs of continuity. The future PET-4 project, still under analysis after the errors inherited from PET-3 —declared void due to the sole bidder's non-compliance—would include more than 500 kilometres of transmission lines and more than 18 substations, a significant expansion to support the new generation capacity.
From the regional energy sector's perspective, Guatemala achieved something key: quickly resolving uncertainties without disrupting its communication with the market. Investors interpreted this responsiveness as a sign of regulatory maturity, especially in a region where political or institutional changes often dampen the appetite for new projects.
Panama also solidified its position as a highly competitive destination for foreign investment, particularly through tenders that combined aggressive pricing with long-term contractual predictability. The ETESA 01-25 Energy Investment Program (LPI ETESA 01-25) committed USD 441.1 million in energy contracts, predominantly for wind power generation, with equivalent prices of USD 23.86/MWh, one of the most competitive benchmarks recently recorded in Central America.
RELIVE FES GUATEMALA 2026: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fQIrVqwZYk
The contractual design also proved particularly attractive to developers, as it included energy allocations for 240 months and firm power commitments for 216 months, a structure that provides financial visibility and reduces recovery risks for capital-intensive investments.
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Added to this was the LPI ETESA 01-26 tender, where the Electric Transmission Company (ETESA) awarded more than 15 solar and wind projects with a consolidated price of USD 33.7/MWh and a general average of USD 34.4/MWh, values that became even more relevant considering that the official reference for that segment had been set at USD 47.8/MWh, revealing a competitive pressure much higher than initially expected by the Panamanian market itself.
While Guatemala and Panama were making progress with concrete awards and new expansion opportunities, Honduras continued to redefine the design of its own structural tender. The 1500 MW project, conceived as one of the country's most significant energy initiatives in recent years, remains shrouded in uncertainty regarding aspects that are sensitive for any international investor.
Among them is the possible elimination of the BOT (Build, Operate and Transfer) scheme, contemplated in previous versions of the tender documents, as well as doubts about the continuity of the reverse auction mechanism, a tool that in markets like Guatemala has already demonstrated the ability to reduce prices and increase competition among bidders.
According to the sources consulted, the main problem lies not in a lack of energy potential, since Honduras retains significant attributes within the regional landscape, but rather in the difficulty of providing clear regulatory signals and sufficient guarantees in a region historically perceived as risky for foreign capital. In this regard, one source is emphatic: “It’s not enough to have energy potential; guarantees must be provided.”
RELIVE FES GUATEMALA 2026: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fQIrVqwZYk
The review of Honduras' energy model also responds to the change in administration and a broader discussion about the role of the State within the electricity system, particularly regarding the balance between opening up to private capital and protecting strategic assets. However, this institutional discussion is taking place at a particularly delicate moment for the system.
Honduran electricity demand is growing between 5% and 6% annually, while the country faces a deficit of nearly 100 MW, a situation that already leads to selective rationing during critical periods, especially in the summer. This means that the discussion about the final design of the major tender not only impacts investor appetite but also an immediate operational need.
Paradoxically, Honduras maintains structural advantages that are difficult to replicate in the region. It is the only Central American country with three active regional interconnections with Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, giving it a strategic position within the regional electricity market for energy exchange. However, in the current scenario, these strengths are insufficient to compensate for the lack of regulatory certainty, especially when international capital is comparing alternatives virtually simultaneously.
The comparison with its neighbours leaves an uncomfortable conclusion for Honduras: while Guatemala is already planning PEG-6 and redefining PET-4 , and Panama is awarding multimillion-dollar contracts with some of the most competitive prices in the region, Tegucigalpa is still trying to define under what rules it will compete for capital that, in fact, has already begun to look towards other markets.
RELIVE FES GUATEMALA 2026: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fQIrVqwZYk