Just over a month after the awards of the new renewable energy tender with private companies from the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) are announced, the market is beginning to outline the price expectations that could mark the process , in a context of strong competition and structural change with respect to previous schemes.
Initial estimates place expected prices in a range of between 35 and 70 USD/MWh , moving away from the historical lows recorded in the 2017 auctions and reflecting a more demanding environment in financial, technological and regulatory terms.
Along those lines, the Director of Moctezuma Sustainable Resources (MRS), Alejandro Robles Hue , predicted that price gap would be between 35 and 70 USD/MWh and assured that "the vast majority expect it to be above 35 dollars , in line with the new market conditions."
May 29 will be the key date when the selected projects are defined, after an initial stage that has already revealed the high interest of the sector: the oversupply is around 580% of the required capacity , with hundreds of initiatives competing to secure contracts under the new mixed model.
For reference, CFE itself projects an average Local Marginal Price (PML) for 2026 of MXN$842, about 45 USD/MWh , a key signal to understand the price level that the system considers consistent.
The PML represents the value of energy at a specific node of the electrical system , determined by generation costs, losses and congestion, and serves as a reference for transactions in the wholesale electricity market.
Based on this, the competitiveness of projects will be strongly influenced by their location, as expectations regarding PMLs vary by area.
In that sense, Robles Hue explains that "it will be a combination of where your project will be located, whether there is a good expectation regarding the PML curve, and that will allow you to be more aggressive in terms of supply ," while clarifying that it is not the same to develop in an area with depressed prices as in one with high price prospects .
This scenario contrasts with that recorded in the long-term auctions of 2017, when Mexico reached some of the lowest prices globally.
In the third Long-Term Electricity Auction, awarded on November 22, 2017 by the Ministry of Energy (SENER), the National Energy Control Center (CENACE) and the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE), a record price of USD 17.77/MWh was registered in wind power projects , led by Enel Green Power.
In particular, the company obtained contracts for the "Amistad Clean Energy 2" (167 MW) and "Amistad 3" (122 MW) projects at USD 17.77/MWh , in addition to other developments in the range of USD 18 to 19.4/MWh.
The average price of clean energy in that auction was USD 20.57/MWh , one of the lowest internationally. However, current conditions differ substantially from that context , mainly due to the increased cost of financing.
"We cannot expect the prices we once had at those auctions."
"Interest rates back then were substantially lower, today they are considerably higher and that is one of the main costs of the project," Robles pointed out.
This change in the cost of capital is compounded by new technical requirements that also put upward pressure on prices, particularly the mandatory incorporation of storage in projects.
It should be remembered that the call for bids establishes that the power plants must have 30% storage capacity with a duration of three hours , a requirement that did not exist in previous auctions and that substantially modifies the cost structure.
In that sense, Robles Hue warns that "that's CAPEX, you have to recover that ," making it clear that this component will have a direct impact on the economic offers.
Added to this are international factors that also affect price formation, such as the increased cost of equipment and tax changes from China, which creates a more complex scenario for project development.
A scheme that redefines competition and prioritizes scale. The model establishes that 70% of the energy will be contracted by the CFE, while the remaining 30% will be open to commercialization in the electricity market or through bilateral contracts , which forces developers to optimize their financial and commercial strategy."You already have 70% contracted through CFE, you can take the risk of the other 30%. There will be areas where the price will be high and that will allow them to offer CFE a lower price and eliminate their competition."
"And in areas where the market price will be low because there is a lot of supply or little demand, that's where they can take a certain market risk and see how high they can raise the price to the Commission," Robles analyzed.
Under this logic, the executive argues that developing in an area with depressed prices is not the same as developing in one with greater tension or better demand prospects , which directly impacts the aggressiveness of the offers.
"I see solar power as cheaper," Robles Hue stated, while highlighting that wind power allows for capturing value during peak hours, when prices are higher.
In this context, hybrid projects are gaining ground as one of the most efficient configurations within the framework , combining technologies and storage to optimize existing infrastructure. Finally, project scale emerges as a key factor in the likelihood of awarding contracts , in a process where CFE will seek to maximize the effective execution of investments.
According to the executive's analysis, large-capacity projects in the range of 200 to 500 MW are more likely to move forward than smaller or even more advanced developments in the permitting process , due to their impact on grid planning. Therefore, the selection criteria will not be determined solely by the project's stage of development, but also by its scale, financial backing, and execution capacity , in a highly competitive process.
This call will be a central focus of analysis at the Future Energy Summit Mexico 2026 , which will take place on May 19 in Mexico City, where key actors from the public and private sectors will address the challenges and opportunities linked to the expansion of the energy system, new investment schemes and the execution of strategic projects.