Energy deficit, pending auctions and more than 5000 MW stalled: the legacy of the next Colombian president

Days before the May 31 presidential elections, Colombia's next president will begin their term with a critical energy agenda. SER Colombia warned that the country could face a structural deficit starting in 2027 if the new government does not accelerate regulatory, financial, and infrastructure decisions to incorporate new capacity and unblock pending projects.

The regulatory environment adds pressure. The next administration will not only receive warnings about energy sufficiency, but also strategic decisions still pending for the electricity market. Among these are the reliability charge auction , whose award was scheduled for March 2026 , and the anticipated call for long-term contracts for renewable energy , two mechanisms closely watched by the sector because they will define investment signals and expansion of supply for the coming years.

SER Colombia estimated that Colombia needs to add at least 6,000 MW of capacity over the next five years , with investments of approximately USD 5 billion , to prevent demand growth from outpacing the addition of new capacity. If specific regulatory and operational measures are implemented, this potential could be increased to 9,500 MW , with an estimated impact of up to 7 trillion pesos in tariff savings.

The renewable energy expansion plan exists on paper, but it continues to face structural bottlenecks. More than 300 permits remain stalled , including transmission-related processes, with delays of up to 2,000 days , while 5,086 MW projects still lack financial closure.

“ Colombia does not have a problem of lack of investor interest, but rather of execution,” said Alexandra Hernández, executive president of SER Colombia.

The roadmap that the sector leaves behind

SER Colombia urged the incoming administration to take action from the outset of its term. Among its priorities are streamlining permits within six months, accelerating connections, expanding electrical infrastructure, reviewing wholesale market signals, and ensuring greater legal stability to restore investor confidence.

The association also questioned certain interventions in the energy market, arguing that they reduced incentives for long-term contracts and negatively impacted the competitiveness of new renewable energy developments. Meanwhile, energy storage was identified as another key component of the reliability strategy, particularly for addressing critical periods in an increasingly diversified system.

The sector agenda also included barriers for small producers. The industry association called for accelerating self-generation schemes, facilitating the entry of new players, and updating contracting mechanisms to better reflect the realities of renewable energy.

The association also suggested that the development of new infrastructure must coexist with more agile social and environmental processes, without losing sight of community participation, particularly in regions where a large part of the renewable portfolio is concentrated.

The industry warning comes as Colombia is on track to close 2026 with more than 4,200 MW of installed renewable capacity . Of that total, 2,876 MW correspond to medium- and large-scale projects in commercial operation or undergoing testing, while more than 1,300 MW come from distributed resources such as self-generation and small farms. An additional 177 MW would be added this year through 16 projects.

With that capacity, Colombia could cover the electricity consumption of Bogotá and its metropolitan area, where 10.2 million people live, in addition to avoiding emissions equivalent to taking more than 265,000 vehicles off the road each year.

At the regional level, renewable energy deployment has already expanded to more than 20 departments, with significant activity in Atlántico, La Guajira, Cesar, Tolima, Cundinamarca, Córdoba, Magdalena, Meta, and Norte de Santander. Atlántico alone accounts for 768.2 MW under construction , while Tolima has 349.4 MW , Cundinamarca 349.5 MW , and Cesar 337.8 MW , consolidating new energy hubs outside of traditional centers.

The pipeline also demonstrates depth. 1,043 MW are ready to begin construction during 2026 , while an additional 5,843 MW remain in earlier stages of development. Some of these projects could move forward between 2027 and 2029, although that will depend on the regulatory and financial environment.

“Renewables are no longer just a future topic of conversation. They are now a necessity for competitiveness and energy sovereignty,” Hernández stated.

With identified projects, interested capital, and expanding technical capacity, the discussion for the next government revolves around the speed with which it can convert that potential into effective generation before the pressure on the system translates into a supply problem.