Grupo Mercados Energéticos Consultores (GME) published a technical note analyzing the evolution of the Mexican electricity market in recent years, reaching conclusions of relevance to the renewable energy sector.
Taking as a reference data from the National Electric System Development Program (PRODESEN) up to 2023 and the first half of 2024, a growth in non-conventional renewable energy technologies (NCRE) is observed, in which wind capacity, which registered 4,866 MW in 2016, advanced to 7,055 MW towards the end of 2023 and solar capacity jumped from 1,878 MW to 7,437 MW, in the same period.
The report uses graphs to show this historical evolution of wind and solar power generation, even taking into account years of analysis prior to the start of the current government's six-year term.
The data shows a steady increase in generation, driven mainly by the continued expansion of installed capacity in these technologies.
However, it is noted that, in the last three years, the growth in annual energy production has been more "modest", reflecting stable energy production due to the lack of new capacity being added and the cancellation of auctions. 
Source: GME - SEN System Power Generation by Type. But that wouldn't be all. Energía Estratégica contacted one of the report's authors, Santiago Masiriz , partner and general manager of GME's Energy Markets Intelligence Division, who indicated that a more in-depth analysis could be done and point out that between 2020 and 2023, the share of wind and solar power practically did not grow in the Mexican market.
"That doesn't happen because there was less wind or less sun," the specialist explained.
Between 2020 and 2023, several things happened.
First, fewer generation permits were granted for renewable energy sources; according to PRODESEN 2024-2038, approximately 1000 MW are yet to be added.
Second, the lack of auctions has been a major market barrier to the expansion of the renewable generation park, which needs a contract for economic viability.
Third, the delay in the expansion of the transmission system has limited the development of renewable projects in high-potential areas.
Finally, project developers face new market barriers such as the requirement for BESS systems that make projects less recoverable,” Masiriz explained in detail.
He specified that from 2018 to 2020 the incorporation of wind power carried inertia from the previous period (the auctions), from 2021 onwards "everything stopped."
In the case of solar power, something similar would have happened.
The consultant indicated that the annual production of photovoltaics "is capped" in the period of analysis and that this is due to the lack of transmission.
However, it wasn't all restrictions.
In 2023, the extreme conditions of the system (drought and high heat) led the Operator and the CRE to enable the entry of some projects that were built but without permission to generate.
This allowed for the growth that is seen in installed capacity.
However, the specialist stressed that "the growth rate of wind and solar power has decreased significantly."
Statistics show that renewable growth slowed.