Chile formalized the approval of the Green Hydrogen Action Plan 2023-2030 through Decree 76. While the measure represents institutional progress, the most urgent challenge for the industry remains to translate that roadmap into concrete and bankable projects.
“The most critical bottleneck lies in international demand. Without signed offtake agreements, it is impossible to obtain bank financing, and without certainty regarding permit processing times, it is unfeasible to finalize these agreements,” said Erwin Plett , managing partner of Low Carbon Chile, in an interview with Energía Estratégica .
The definition sets the fundamental axis: the Plan can order actions, institutional responsibilities, financial instruments, permits and enabling infrastructure, but it does not by itself resolve the main uncertainty of the business: who will buy green hydrogen and its derivatives, at what price and under what contractual conditions.
It is worth remembering that the document had already been presented in 2024 and is now formally approved by decree, in a global context of greater caution, review of deadlines and search for real demand.
For Plett, the Plan “represented a key collaborative milestone” and marks “a real step toward the realization of the industry,” as it establishes 81 specific actions with deadlines and responsible ministries. However, he emphasized: “The real test for the country will be transforming these political declarations into tangible corporate investments.”
Uncertainty is not unique to Chile. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that global hydrogen demand reached almost 100 million tons in 2024 , but remains concentrated in traditional uses such as refining and industry. New applications—key to driving green hydrogen into sectors like steel, maritime transport, aviation, and power generation—represented less than 1% of the total.
On the supply side, the market is also showing a correction in expectations. According to the IEA, the potential production of low-emission hydrogen announced for 2030 has fallen from 49 to 37 million tons per year , due to project cancellations and delays. Furthermore, initiatives that have reached final investment decisions represent only 9% of the global pipeline leading up to 2030.
The gap is most evident in the contracts. In an update published in 2026, the entity noted that most of the purchase agreements signed are still preliminary and that contracts with binding conditions for suppliers and buyers represent less than 2 million tons per year .
The same concern appears in recent financial analyses. A paper from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies , published in January 2026, concludes that the bankability of hydrogen projects depends, above all, on having solid, long-term offtake contracts capable of adequately distributing price and volume risk between producers and buyers.
The plan acknowledges bankability, but does not guarantee buyers.
The Action Plan itself acknowledges that bankability is one of the critical points for the industry's deployment. In the section on economic and financial mechanisms, it notes that hydrogen and green ammonia projects have not yet reached their break-even point, and therefore considers it necessary to support the initial industrial developments with incentives capable of mitigating risks and improving their competitiveness against fossil fuels.
Along these lines, it includes instruments such as the update of Corfo's Green Credit , an H2V Financial Facility with state backing and support from multilateral banks, and financial assistance mechanisms aimed at ensuring the bankability and financial sustainability of projects.
The H2V Financial Facility would have an initial size of around US$1 billion and would seek to finance initiatives at various stages of development. In addition, the Plan envisions advancing instruments inspired by H2Global , with the aim of connecting producers and consumers and closing the price gap between production and marketing.
However, this recognition also exposes the limitations of the roadmap. While public instruments can improve the investment environment and reduce financial risks, they do not replace the need for signed purchase agreements .
"It is structurally insufficient when compared to the scale of commercial megaprojects, which require billions of dollars each. Therefore, its true role is not to finance the entire industry, but to provide the necessary financial guarantees to make the first commercial-scale pilot projects viable," he stressed.
Permits, deadlines and local demand
Although international demand appears to be the main obstacle, the specialist warned that the local agenda also faces constraints: “At the local level, the problem lies in the confluence of environmental permitting processes and the lack of shared infrastructure in key regions. Bureaucracy has slowed the execution of basic connectivity works, ports, and desalination plants.”
This is in addition to a recalibration of deadlines. According to Plett, the update to the National Strategy for Green Hydrogen and Derivatives , published in March 2026, maintains the original quantitative goals, but acknowledges a change in market maturation times.
“It maintains the original quantitative goals, but assumes a time lag of between five and ten years,” he stated.
Given this scenario, developing local demand appears as a way to sustain initial projects, although it is not enough to replace export-scale production. Initial opportunities could lie in refineries, mining, freight transport, and certain industrial processes.
“State-owned oil refineries are the natural sector to absorb the initial volumes, due to their intensive use of gray hydrogen. Large-scale copper mining is the other immediate candidate,” he stated.
Finally, international certification will be another requirement for accessing demanding markets.
“Without a traceable certification system, Chilean products will not be legally recognized as 'green' in destination countries,” said the managing partner of Low Carbon Chile.