While battery energy storage systems (BESS) already exceed 5 GW in operation and testing , the National Electric Coordinator projects that reductions in variable renewable energy (VRE) generation could fall by 77% in December 2026 compared to the same month in 2025 .
The figure comes from the 12-month Operating Program submitted by the agency and assumes compliance with the construction plan along with a PE90% hydrological condition. It is, therefore, a projection based on these assumptions and not a reduction attributable solely to the deployment of batteries.
This scenario sends a significant signal to an industry that has faced major headaches in recent years due to spills. However, the Coordinator's latest assessment shows that, as this problem begins to lessen, new demands are emerging for managing a resource matrix that is far more dependent on variable resources .
As of July, Chile had 5,005 MW and 22,260 MWh of storage capacity in operation or undergoing testing . At the same time, renewable energy sources accounted for 64% of the cumulative generation projected for 2026 , with solar and wind power already representing nearly 40% of electricity generation .
Source: National Electric Coordinator.
BESS become an operational resource
The leap in energy storage is already beginning to change the way the National Electric System is programmed.
According to an analysis presented by Juan Pablo Ávalos , Deputy Manager of Programming and Economic Analysis at the Coordinator, BESS systems have ceased to be considered an emerging technology and have become an operational resource capable of providing flexibility, facilitating renewable integration, mitigating ERV reductions, and reinforcing system security.
The program currently comprehensively models 51 storage systems , along with some 1700 generating units, 235 busbars and 327 transmission lines.
The scale achieved, however, also poses challenges. BESSs have a limited amount of energy, and their use involves intertemporal decisions: discharging a battery now means forgoing that same energy later.
For this reason, the Coordinator identifies the implementation of the opportunity cost of BESS (Energy Service Energy Savings) as one of the next steps. The calculation of this cost must be updated regularly to reflect the uncertainty and variability of demand and renewable energy sources. The agency has 24 months to implement its calculation and use in accordance with Supreme Decree 32/2026.
The problem is no longer just the dumping
The second diagnosis shows why the growth of storage does not eliminate the challenges of the energy transition.
During 2026, solar production reached 12.7 TWh, an 18% increase , and wind power reached 7.5 TWh, a 9% increase . In contrast, hydroelectric generation fell by 12% , to 10.5 TWh.
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And water management became one of the sensitive issues.
The 2025-2026 hydrological year was the fourth driest in the statistics compiled by the Coordinator , with an inflow of 20,109 GWh. The agency also observes an apparent concentration of drier conditions since 2010 , which necessitates more sophisticated scenario modeling and management of available energy in reservoirs.
Added to this is a particularly relevant element for a matrix with increasing solar and wind penetration. Among the factors that increased the risk of water scarcity during the first half of the year, the Coordinator identified greater use of reservoirs due to an overestimation of solar and wind energy availability .
This makes the accuracy of irradiance and wind forecasts an increasingly relevant variable for system security. When actual generation falls short of projections, alternative resources must be brought online, and energy that might be needed later can be used in advance.
The Coordinator calls for ensuring reliable energy.
Signs of water scarcity began appearing in the Security of Supply Study (ESA) in January, initially projected for June under extremely dry hydrology scenarios. The risk was confirmed in February, persisted through March and April, and intensified in May, extending into July.
In addition to lower water availability and overestimation of renewables, factors included lower gas availability, restrictions in diesel logistics, and the prolonged failure of a major 270 MW power plant.
The Coordinator had to strengthen LNG and natural gas management during the period, monitor diesel stocks and replenishments daily, and temporarily implement an extraordinary mechanism to incorporate additional availability of LNG/CNG into the intraday schedule and real-time operation .
Even backup logistics showed physical limitations. The agency determined that electricity generation can account for up to 17% of a macro-region's diesel demand , with a more frequent replenishment time of 18 hours. During the shortage, deliveries of up to 9,000 cubic meters per day were verified, although that volume cannot be guaranteed sustainably due to supply chain constraints.
A new stage for the Chilean transition
The two diagnoses published by the Coordinator during August thus show a transition in the problems facing the SEN.
On the one hand, the construction plan and the conditions included in the schedule allow for a projected 77% reduction in renewable energy curtailments by December , a significant change for a market that has accumulated growing surpluses of solar and wind power. Energy storage, in turn, appears to be one of the resources that will help mitigate these reductions.
On the other hand, achieving more than 5 GW of BESS , 64% renewable generation and a solar-wind share close to 40% requires incorporating new variables into the discussion: forecast accuracy, intertemporal management of storage and reservoirs, dispatch automation and firm resource availability.
The Coordinator warns that, in the face of dry hydrology, infrastructure contingencies, or weather events affecting renewable energy generation, supply constraints could reappear. Hence, his call for companies to ensure the availability of both their assets and fuels to provide firm energy when the system requires it .