Colombia is approaching a new El Niño period with a firm energy shortfall of 8,030 GWh/year for 2026-2027, equivalent to 8.6% of the system's needs . For 2027-2028, the gap is expected to remain practically the same: 7,841 GWh/year, or 8.3%, according to figures from XM included in the assessment presented by the Ministry of Mines and Energy.
The data comes as the Energy and Gas Regulatory Commission (CREG) prepares new Firm Energy Obligation (OEF) allocations for the coming years. The regulator had already established mechanisms for the 2027-2028 and 2029-2030 periods, in addition to reconfiguration auctions to address reliability needs in the near future.
The intersection of both scenarios focuses on an issue that goes beyond the nominal addition of new power: how much generation will actually be available to support Colombian demand during critical low hydrology conditions .
In this context, the government has already indicated that 2027 will be a key year for new calls for bids , while no new auctions are planned for 2026. The Minister of Mines and Energy, María Nohemi Arboleda , stated during the Andesco Congress in Cartagena that the Executive Branch has been working with the Energy and Gas Regulatory Commission (CREG) on mechanisms to recover the energy required by the system.
“Next year will be a year of several auctions. We have spoken with the CREG because we need it. This year we probably won't be able to hold an auction, but we will look at how we can recover mechanisms to get the energy the system needs,” Arboleda stated.
Under the Reliability Charge scheme, firm energy represents precisely the capacity that a power plant can commit to supplying the system in critical circumstances. Therefore, the upcoming auctions take on greater importance given a balance that, according to official data, remains in deficit.
The government itself acknowledges that the problem transcends the current climate situation. In its presentation on energy security in the face of El Niño, the Ministry maintains that “it is not a temporary problem, it is structural,” combining in a single diagnosis a firm energy deficit, infrastructure delays, financial problems within the market, and restrictions in gas supply.
The bottleneck is not only in allocating new capacity
The scenario takes on a different dimension when analyzing the pace of project additions. According to the official document, 4,475 MW of new generation capacity were expected by 2026, but only 16.4% corresponds to capacity actually added according to the indicator presented by the Government .
In addition, there is a portfolio of 275 generation projects with delays of more than one year , 33 of which are more than four years behind schedule. In transmission, nearly 60% of projects are behind schedule, a critical factor because having power plants does not, in itself, guarantee that electricity can be transported to consumption centers.
The delays are particularly affecting the eastern region, comprising Bogotá, Cundinamarca, Meta, and Guaviare, where some transmission projects are between 10 and 12 years behind schedule . The Colectora project, crucial for transmitting renewable energy generation from La Guajira, is five years behind schedule, according to information from the Mining and Energy Planning Unit compiled by the Ministry.
This point introduces one of the central discussions surrounding future auctions: not only what volume of firm energy to contract, but what conditions the projects must demonstrate to ensure that they can effectively become operational within the agreed deadlines .
Current regulations allow the CREG to incorporate additional requirements related to the connection of new projects to the National Interconnected System when it calls for a Reliability Charge auction. For the 2029-2030 period, the Commission justified the mechanism as a tool to incorporate new generation capacity capable of reliably meeting expected demand.
The discussion also coincides with demands from the renewable energy sector to move forward not only with Reliability Charge auctions, but also with long-term contracts, new allocations of grid connection points, and regulations that allow for the development of battery storage . SER Colombia has identified these instruments as essential for accelerating new investment and unlocking projects during 2026.
El Niño adds pressure on the calendar
The urgency of the debate is related to hydrological trends. Official analysis identifies September as the month in which, during previous El Niño events, the deficit in reservoir inflows began to deepen.
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For this reason, the Ministry considers the last quarter of 2026 to be the main decision window, while it places the first quarter of 2027 as the period of greatest demand on firm energy, fuels and water reserves.
“The decision window closes in the fourth quarter,” the official document warns. According to the government, measures related to new projects, energy savings, and the availability of thermal power plants should be defined during that period.
Auctions take center stage in the energy debate
The El Niño scenario thus places future firm energy auctions in a different context than a conventional expansion of the generating fleet. The challenge lies in incorporating capacity capable of responding during critical periods while simultaneously preventing awards from being hampered by connection, transmission, licensing, or financing issues .
CREG had already included in its regulatory agenda the task of balancing expected demand with firm energy supply to determine the need for new auctions. The regulations stipulate that auctions can be triggered when the available firm energy supply is insufficient to meet target demand or when the regulator deems it necessary to strengthen service provision conditions in the medium and long term.
This explains why the regulatory discussion is not limited to the final allocated volume. The design of the guarantees, connection requirements, entry deadlines, and the economic signal for new projects will be crucial in ensuring that the contracted obligations translate into actual available capacity.
The Government, in parallel, announced the reactivation of the Projects of National and Strategic Interest (PINES) , the Intersectoral Commission of Strategic Projects and the High Level Energy Roundtable as instruments intended to accelerate generation and transmission infrastructure.
“Facilitating generation and transmission projects is a priority,” the official presentation states. This approach is significant because a new round of allocations could strengthen the future firm energy balance, but ultimate reliability will also depend on these projects overcoming the barriers that currently explain a large part of the accumulated delays .
This debate will also be addressed at the Future Energy Summit (FES) Colombia on October 1st , where public and private market actors will once again discuss renewable expansion, storage, regulation, infrastructure, and the signals needed to mobilize investment.
The meeting will take place just three days after FES Peru and will bring together ISAGEN , CATL , Terpel , Sungrow , SolaX Power , JinkoSolar , GameChange Solar , ISA Energía , Promigas , PV Hardware and Atlas Renewable Energy .
Also participating will be Marsh , Nexans , Patria Investments , AFRY , Atera , Skysense , Alurack , TCL , CTG Latam , Vatia , Gotion , Yingli Solar , JA Solar and ERCO , among other companies linked to different segments of the value chain.
The fundamental discussion, then, is not solely about how much new resource Colombia can contract. The challenge will be to transform the upcoming auctions into new, operational, firm energy that is connected and available before the system's needs increase again , while El Niño forces the parallel management of hydropower, gas, thermal power plants, and accumulated infrastructure backlogs.
The official document itself summarizes this urgency by stating that “what is decided now defines the operation of the first quarter of 2027.” With a deficit of 8,030 GWh/year already identified for 2026-2027, the upcoming regulatory decisions will become one of the main indicators for measuring how Colombia seeks to close its reliability gap.