The new phase of photovoltaic expansion in Mexico will not depend solely on the availability of capital, permits, or interconnection capacity. Early engineering, site studies, and the development of realistic construction schedules will be crucial for the projects planned for 2027 to reach their commercial operation date (COD).
During the Future Energy Summit (FES) Mexico, Pablo Oliva, Sales Manager for Latin America at Axial , focused on the physical execution of power plants. He maintained that the feasibility analysis must include, from the outset, the timelines for design, manufacturing, logistics, pile driving, assembly, and commissioning.
“We are seeing many projects with Q4 COD dates, and a realistic project timeline and schedule is not being considered,” Oliva warned.
It's worth noting that in December 2025, the Mexican government awarded 3,300 MW of renewable energy and 1,200 MW of battery storage capacity in its call for bids from private companies for priority projects. All projects have estimated commissioning dates between 2027 and 2029 , although three stand out due to their planned start-up in December 2027 : the Herrera Solar Energy Plant (231 MW) in Puebla, the Tecozautla PV Plant (122.3 MW) in Hidalgo, and the El Toro Solar Plant (107 MW) in Guanajuato.
This portfolio is in addition to 6700 MW recently assigned under a mixed investment scheme with the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) .
In addition, the government announced that another 4,595 MW of photovoltaic and concentrated solar power capacity will be awarded during 2026 through new tenders. Both the projects under the mixed-use scheme and those included in these processes are expected to become operational in 2029.
The projected volume for the coming years necessitates looking beyond the awarding of contracts and focusing on the effective execution capacity of each initiative. According to Oliva, financial structuring and connectivity availability must be complemented by planning that considers the actual timelines for engineering, supply, and construction.
“It is of no use to us to have the financial and interconnection aspects perfectly studied if we do not have the park built,” noted the LATAM Sales Manager of Axial.
“Part of the feasibility study also has to focus on studying that project timeline, those deliveries, those milestones,” he added.
The consolidation of several CODs towards the end of 2027 will also require ordering the available capacities on the market.
Mexico must recover its large-scale construction momentum
According to the executive, the country has not sustained continuous activity in large-scale solar projects for several years. Therefore, the new cycle will require reactivating specialized teams, reviewing supply capacities, and identifying experienced partners to support the construction process.
Oliva describes this stage as a process in which the supply chain must gradually regain its working rhythm. This involves re-coordinating engineering firms, manufacturers, contractors, logistics operators, and installation teams. "It's a machine that needs lubrication; it's a system that needs to regain momentum," the executive stated.
The experience gained during the first photovoltaic expansion provides a foundation for this process. Axial began executing projects in Mexico between 2012 and 2013, a period that proved key to the company's internationalization outside of Europe.
“Mexico was the country outside of Europe where the company really grew and became international,” Oliva recalled.
The manufacturer also identifies an evolution in the criteria the market uses to analyze power plants. While in the first stage the focus was primarily on increasing power output, current developments require greater integration with the needs of the electrical grid.
Projects up to 800 MW raise the technical requirements
Axial analyzes a large number of opportunities in Mexico, although it defines its participation according to the technical maturity of each proposal, the required quality and the consistency of previous studies.
According to the executive in an exclusive interview, they are analyzing a pipeline of more than 3 GW in Mexico.
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“We are looking at many projects, dozens and dozens of projects, but we are also being very selective in the initiatives we are joining,” the executive said.
The company believes that technical feasibility must go hand in hand with financial and commercial structuring. This means having sufficient studies, site-specific designs, and clear criteria for selecting components and suppliers.
Quality is especially important in assets whose useful life can extend for 25, 30 or 35 years.
“Buy quality, bet on quality, bet on a technical service and engineering that is of quality, that knows what it is doing, that has years of experience in the market,” the executive states.
Mexican market trends point to solar projects between 300 and 400 MW, with developments that could even reach 800 MW. This scale raises the demands on engineering, manufacturing, logistics, and coordination among the various stakeholders involved.
In this type of power plant, early planning is key to organizing the production of components, avoiding adjustments during construction, and maintaining the planned construction sequence.
"That he knows how the manufacturing processes work and how they go in different countries, whether in China, Europe, the United States, Thailand, anywhere, but that he really knows what he is doing," said the Axial representative.
Among the main aspects that Axial seeks to strengthen are geotechnical studies, start-up tests, and the development of layouts adapted to the specific conditions of each site.
“Many of the projects come with development deficiencies, whether in the geotechnical aspect, in the pullout test aspect, or in the purely functional aspect of developing a good layout,” Oliva describes.
These revisions may extend the initial engineering phase, although they allow for the correct sizing of structures and the definition of the most suitable installation method before starting manufacturing.
As an example, the executive cites the case of a 250 MW plant initially designed with direct pile driving to a depth of two meters. If soil tests determine other conditions, part of the site might require pre-drilling.
“What was considered a 250-megawatt park with direct drilling to 2 m has become a park that requires pre-drilling in 70% of the project,” he explained.
He added: “We are trying to optimize the design and invest time in the early stages of the project.”
For Axial, the economic evaluation should not focus solely on CAPEX. The tracker's design, ease of assembly, and maintenance requirements will also impact OPEX over the 25 to 30 years of operation.
“We tried to design the park specifically to reduce those future costs, shorten installation times, and make it easier to reach the self-imposed COD,” he said.
Thus, compliance with the COD targets set for 2027 will depend on a comprehensive vision that connects initial studies, engineering, manufacturing, construction, and long-term operation.
“The growth and development of a sustainable market, in this case the Mexican market, go hand in hand with real projects that are well-designed and buildable,” Oliva concluded.