Central America was already aware of the economic dimension of its energy transition. In its roadmap, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) had estimated an average need of close to USD 3.5 billion annually until 2050 for renewable generation, grids, and flexibility.
Four years later, the discussion had moved towards a more uncomfortable question: how to ensure that this volume of capital actually reached the projects?
Ricardo Gorini , representative of the association, brought this debate to the Central America and the Caribbean Energy Transition Investment Forum , held in Santo Domingo, and placed Brazil as a reference for building an environment capable of reducing risks before resorting to private financing.
“ We have to develop, in just a few years, much more than we have already done in our history ,” he stated during his presentation.
The urgency was also reflected in the agency's latest figures. Central America had accumulated around 14 GW of renewable power in 2024 , equivalent to 67% of the subregion's electricity capacity, while clean sources had contributed approximately 66% of generation during 2023. However, the 1.5°C compatible scenario required reaching 22 GW by 2030 .
To bridge that gap, the international agency had calculated additions of around 1 GW of renewable energy per year until the end of the decade , compared to just 0.12 GW added during 2024. This difference shifted the focus from technological availability to the conditions needed to accelerate deployment.
Faced with this scenario, Gorini did not present a new goal for Central America. On the contrary, he pointed to the Brazilian case as a reference for structuring mechanisms capable of reducing risks and attracting capital.
“It’s a study we conducted focusing on the case of Brazil and how the country managed to build a de-risking ecosystem in the investment process. Today it’s a well-known success story,” he stated.
The analysis he referenced had been prepared by IRENA in conjunction with the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) and had emphasized coordination among energy planning, development banks, public institutions, and private actors. The starting point was a common difficulty in emerging economies: technically competitive projects could still face expensive financing due to regulatory, exchange rate, political, counterparty, or grid-related risks.
“ There are specific de-risk points that were addressed at each stage of that process ,” Gorini said.
Brazilian architecture combined long-term planning, specialized agencies, and access to credit through development banks. The role of the Ministry of Mines and Energy, the Energy Research Company (EPE), and the BNDES (Brazilian Development Bank) has also been highlighted within a framework that allowed for infrastructure expansion and increased private sector participation.
The objective had been to use institutional resources and instruments to reduce uncertainty and lower financing costs , so that commercial capital could assume a larger share of the deployment.
“The joint construction process involving the public sector, the private sector, and the banking sector—we must call on the banking sector to participate in this discussion—brings very effective results: cost reduction, attraction in all sectors, generation, transmission, distribution, marketing, and, of course, electrification,” he noted.
That reference gained weight when revisiting the Central American situation. The lag had not occurred in a subregion with low renewable penetration: hydroelectric, solar, wind, and geothermal had already formed one of the electricity mixes with the highest clean energy participation, but that base had not been enough to sustain the pace projected in the decarbonization scenarios.
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“ Investment is at the heart of the development of the necessary capacity expansion in the Latin America and Caribbean region ,” Gorini emphasized.
The gap became even more apparent when looking at the global map. IRENA recorded that Central America and the Caribbean had a combined total of just 21 GW of renewable energy by the end of 2025 , the lowest volume among the regions considered by the agency, while Asia, Europe, and North America accounted for the majority of new global additions.
From an energy plan to a bankable project
The presentation also shifted the discussion toward the rules needed to transform planning into assets capable of attracting capital. Gorini linked this transition to frameworks that better distribute risks:
“We need market design that is capable of bringing the de-risking process, bringing investment to the markets, properly pricing this energy, and bringing assurance that this energy will be traded over time.”
The issue went far beyond the construction of new renewable energy parks. The Central American roadmap had already incorporated transmission, distribution, expansion of the SIEPAC interconnection, and storage , in addition to strengthening balancing markets and ancillary services.
In 2026, several of these needs began to take shape in concrete decisions. Guatemala had launched PEG-6-2026 to contract 600 MW , of which 450 MW corresponded to new plants and 150 MW to existing assets, through contracts of up to 15 years. The call for bids came after peak demand reached 2,301 MW , 8.6% higher than in 2025, and placed firm capacity, along with renewable expansion, among the system's priorities.
Honduras , for its part, was preparing a short-term contract for approximately 600 MW while reformulating another process for up to 1,500 MW . Its planning projected a drop in available firm power from 2,053 MW in 2027 to 1,227 MW in 2029 and, without new additions, a mere 890 MW by 2035, compared to a peak demand of 2,921 MW. The country was also analyzing how to incorporate stand-alone and hybrid battery storage systems within the new grids.
In the Dominican Republic , the challenge had progressed to another phase. Installed capacity had increased from 4,921 MW in 2020 to approximately 7,120 MW in 2025 , with solar and wind exceeding 2,000 MW. The government projected reaching around 2,800 MW of renewables and at least 800 MW of storage by 2028 , with new tenders aimed at combining clean generation, BESS (Basic Energy Storage Systems), and firm capacity.
This growth had already begun to strain operations. During the first months of 2026, the Dominican renewable energy curtailment had hovered around 14% , with days approaching 40%, in a context marked by congestion, transmission limits, and solar surpluses. In response, the authorities were preparing an auction for 200 MW of battery storage for existing plants , another for 600 to 900 MW of new renewable generation with storage , and a subsequent contracting of firm power for 2030-2032.
This mosaic explained why IRENA had once again placed infrastructure, flexibility, and financing within the same conversation. The slides presented in Santo Domingo organized this vision under a “Regional Energy Sandbox Planning” framework , structured around strategy, governance, capacity building, financial resources, infrastructure, and coordination.
“We need partnerships between the public and private sectors to develop an investment ecosystem that will make it possible to achieve those numbers,” Gorini said.
Integration between countries completed the approach. Instead of addressing backup, transmission, or flexibility needs in isolation, the agency advocated for supranational planning capable of leveraging interconnections, resource complementarity, and economies of scale.
“It is a priority for countries to work together, planning what we call a regional vision, not just for each country, but to have a vision of a single market,” he said.
The discussion thus shifted from determining how many megawatts should be installed to defining what infrastructure should accompany them, who would assume each risk, and what signals would allow for financing . Guatemala sought to secure new supply and reliability, Honduras faced a growing gap in available capacity, and the Dominican Republic already needed to manage solar surpluses and grid constraints.