Mexico faces a new phase of renewable expansion with 6,754 MW pending allocation , of which 4,595 MW correspond to photovoltaic and solar thermal projects, while the remaining 2,159 MW are linked to wind initiatives.
According to estimates from the National Energy Control Center (Cenace) , the National Energy Commission (CNE) and the Mexican Wind Energy Association (AMDEE) , those 2159 MW of wind power could mobilize between USD 4 billion and USD 5 billion in investments until 2030 .
The potential economic volume coexists with a crucial question for developers, manufacturers, financial institutions, and suppliers: what conditions will allow that portfolio to be converted into built projects and capacity effectively connected to the system?
For Mehdi Hadbi, Country Head Mexico & Sales Director North Latam at Vestas , the answer requires distinguishing between two concepts that are often used as equivalents, although they have different consequences in financial decisions: risk and uncertainty .
“The risks for investors are something they can manage because any risk, if it has a cost, well, it's about putting it into your financial model and seeing if you like the business or not,” Hadbi said in an exclusive interview during the Future Energy Summit (FES) Mexico .
In other words, an identifiable risk can translate into a premium, a required rate of return, contractual coverage, or a higher cost of financing. Uncertainty, on the other hand, makes it difficult to determine scenarios and project income, terms, or operating conditions.
“Uncertainty is something that cannot be quantified, and it is what was expected in Mexico,” the Vestas executive warned.
The definition shifts the focus beyond the availability of wind resources or business interests. Mexico has projects, an experienced supply chain, and companies willing to participate , but it needs new mechanisms that reduce the variables that cannot be reliably incorporated into economic models.
“There is a lot of interest in Mexico, there are projects. It is a market that has always been competitive,” Hadbi said.
The reactivation of the sector, therefore, would not start from scratch. The country has approximately 8 GW of installed wind power , in addition to a portfolio of initiatives at different stages of development and an industrial base comprised of wind turbine manufacturers, developers, operators, construction companies, and specialized suppliers.
The gap between targets and allocated capacity
In the mixed scheme, the allocated capacity reached approximately 700 MW compared to a target of 2,850 MW. This figure represents coverage of approximately 24.6% of the planned wind power target , meaning that 2,159 MW of wind power remain to be allocated for the next stage.
The new framework also relies on an initial phase of renewable energy allocations comprising 67 projects and 12,559 MW of solar and wind capacity . Of this total, 50 photovoltaic and concentrated solar power plants account for 7,859 MW, while 17 wind farms contribute another 4,700 MW, according to official government data.
The result contrasts with the progress of other technologies and shows that the next wave of calls for proposals will be decisive in determining the pace of recovery of wind energy activity, since projects will be able to participate through private modalities or mixed investment schemes with state presence.
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“The mechanisms the government is promoting have, in a way, provided a framework, a set of rules that significantly reduce uncertainty. The government is fostering dialogue with the private sector ,” explained the Vestas representative.
This observation does not imply that all market participants share the same assessment of the design of these instruments. The key point for Vestas is that the existence of defined procedures allows for understanding the conditions under which projects will be developed .
Greater uncertainty leads investors to demand higher returns or postpone their decisions. Conversely, a predictable framework can improve asset bankability, increase competition, and reduce development costs .
But the discussion is not limited to the volume of investment; the technology can fulfill a complementary function within the Mexican electricity matrix, especially due to its afternoon-evening schedule, which allows wind power to complement other energy sources.
The complementarity between energy sources does not eliminate the need to strengthen grids, incorporate flexibility, and expedite the construction of transmission infrastructure. However, a coordinated expansion of wind and solar generation, storage, and grids would allow for a more diversified energy mix to meet demand .
The possibility of mobilizing up to USD 5 billion will then depend on the projects having feasible technical and economic conditions. The announced capacity must translate into bankable contracts, timely permits, and available connection points.
Vestas seeks to expand a 2.7 GW operation
Within this new scenario, Vestas seeks to consolidate its presence as a technology provider and partner of projects that advance under private and mixed modalities .
The company already has 2.7 GW in operation in Mexico , equivalent to more than a third of the installed wind capacity in the country if a national park of close to 8 GW is taken as a reference.
“We are proud to be in Mexico, which has always been a key market for us. Our goal is to strengthen this position,” confirmed Hadbi. The installed capacity allows the company to participate in the next stage with experience in operation, maintenance, and technological adaptation to the Mexican market. The objective also includes transferring lessons learned from other electrical systems.
Beyond supplying wind turbines, Vestas is positioning itself around long-term relationships with developers and authorities. The company aims to be involved in both new projects and the optimization of existing turbines.
Hadbi believes that “ with today’s technological advances and our long-term vision, we can be a privileged partner for our clients .”
Vestas also seeks to contribute its experience gained in other countries to support the design and execution of projects within the new Mexican framework. “ It's largely about the know-how we have in various markets to ensure this energy transition is fair and socially responsible ,” the specialist added.
The next stage will determine whether Mexico can transform its renewable energy portfolio into a true wave of construction. The 2,159 MW of pending wind power projects and the potential USD 5 billion in investment represent a concrete opportunity, but they do not, on their own, guarantee the projects' progress.