Mexico awarded 34.3 million Clean Energy Certificates (CELs) in 2025, representing a 22% increase compared to the 28.1 million awarded in 2024.
Alberto Campos , Manager at Trio, said that the increase was due to regulatory changes, but pointed out that the real impact will depend on raising the current requirement and maintaining the original spirit of the mechanism.
For instance, the entry into force of the Electricity Sector Law in March 2025 eliminated historical restrictions for clean power plants prior to 2014 to receive CELs, which generated an increase in them.
“ When this deadline is no longer in place, hydroelectric plants belonging to the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) and older power plants can receive certificates. This increases the supply ,” Campos stated in an interview with Energía Estratégica .
The monthly breakdown of issuance also reveals a shift in market dynamics. During the first two months of 2025, approximately 4.3 million CELs were allocated, averaging 2.2 million per month. From March onward, the pace accelerated to nearly 3 million per month, accumulating almost 30 million additional CELs by year's end. This surge marks a turning point in certificate issuance, aligned with regulatory easing and the integration of legacy power plants into the system.
With this new scenario, the market's focus now shifts to the CEL consumption requirement, considered the main factor in absorbing the increased supply and sustaining the mechanism's objective. Currently, the requirement stands at 13.9%, although the sector expects an update in the coming months.
“ The important thing is to see what requirement increases in order to achieve the spirit of the certificates, which is to promote a new generation ,” he noted and estimated. that the percentages could rise to 17% or 18% in May , in line with what various market players anticipate.
However, he stressed that a 20% requirement would be the ideal scenario to preserve the original design of the scheme.
Beyond the adjustment to the requirement, the increase in the issuance of CELs also raises questions about the balance between supply and demand within the market. According to Campos, the increased availability of certificates does not necessarily correct existing distortions, especially in a context where structural demand remains constrained.
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“ If you have a higher demand for certificates, prices should increase; if you have more supply than demand, in theory they should decrease ,” he said.
In this regard, price behavior will be directly linked to how the new requirement evolves , as it will be the main mechanism for absorbing the growth in issuance. Currently, CELs (Clean Energy Certificates) are a regulatory obligation, which positions them as an indispensable compliance instrument for certain actors in the system.
Added to this is an additional factor: the limited validity of the new certificates, which will be 30 months , introducing a different dynamic in the market by avoiding prolonged accumulations.
“ That also helps to keep the number of competitors in the market down or to prevent them from becoming obsolete, which is positive in terms of the market ,” the executive explained.
However, the increase in supply does not automatically solve the deficit faced by CFE Basic Services Supplier , whose restrictions on acquiring CELs, limited to medium and long-term auctions, have reduced its effective supply capacity, even considering the larger volume available.
In parallel, the market is also observing a growing divergence between CELs and other environmental instruments such as I-RECs (International Renewable Energy Certificates), used mainly by large corporations to meet emissions targets.
“ For greenhouse gas protocol issues, CELs don't work; companies are using I-REC or guarantees of origin ,” Campos warned.
He explained that this corporate demand is increasing and is already impacting prices. “ We are seeing greater demand for I-REC certificates, and that has led to higher prices ,” he noted, explaining that these certificates have gone from values close to $2 to levels between $6.50 and $7.
This scenario reinforces that the real challenge will be to ensure that the regulatory design continues to incentivize new renewable capacity.
“ We need to see if it will continue with the spirit for which it was created, which was to increase the country's renewable energy generation capacity ,” he concluded.