The photovoltaic market is entering a new phase of price formation , with less room to repeat the lows observed during 2025 and early 2026.
The combination of regulatory adjustments in China, a lower supply of low-efficiency technologies, and greater restrictions on production capacity is beginning to alter the balance that sustained exceptionally low values.
“If I had to put a number on it, I would say that around US$0.11–0.12 per watt could be a value to expect for photovoltaic modules in 2027. In any case, it is a reference that can change from one day to the next,” said Marcos Donzino , Head of Sales South Latam of JA Solar , when asked about price references during the Future Energy Summit (FES) Peru.
“It’s very difficult to establish a range because it can change rapidly. I think the market could become somewhat more stable if some of the inefficient supply, which normally pushes prices down, is removed from the market,” he explained, warning that any estimate is subject to rapid changes due to industrial and logistical factors.
Relive FES Peru: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0sL4_p8bfK4
One of the central factors will be supply, given that the new efficiency requirements could reduce approximately between 300 and 500 GW, according to preliminary estimates from the sector, although there is still no definitive figure on the impact.
“We don’t yet have an exact figure for how much global production capacity will be reduced, but it’s estimated at approximately 30%. If supply falls by 30% while demand remains stable, there is clearly upward pressure on prices. In fact, we’ve already seen increases in recent weeks,” Donzino noted.
The change would begin to gain momentum from January 1, 2027 , when China plans to implement stricter requirements on product efficiency, industrial energy consumption, and technological competitiveness of production lines.
The adjustment puts pressure on 620W and 625W models currently on the market and, fundamentally, on lines that cannot quickly reach the new standards.
This could accelerate the cessation of capacity dedicated to less efficient products. Meanwhile, large players would have greater capacity to retool their plants and focus on more efficient technologies.
“It could significantly change the market dynamics. There are around 200 module manufacturers globally, most of them located in China, and some have a significant portion of their product lines focused on lower-efficiency products,” the executive explained.
The regulatory move comes after a period of severe oversupply. According to data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) for 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, the prices of solar energy equipment sold in Europe reached their lowest historical values last year.
The high-efficiency category fell 24% year-on-year to USD 0.15/Wp , while bifacials declined 3.8% to USD 0.27/Wp .
Continue reading
During the first quarter of 2026, prices ranged from USD 0.07/Wp in the low-cost category to USD 0.25/Wp for bifacial arrays , depending on the technology. The latter also increased their global market share, rising from 50% in 2023 to 68% in 2025 , according to ITRPV data compiled by IRENA.
According to the organization, the decline recorded during 2025 was due to persistent oversupply, inventory buildup, and commercial competition throughout the supply chain relative to demand, which conditioned purchasing decisions for months.
This dynamic began to change with China's fiscal policy. As of April 1, 2026 , the Asian giant eliminated VAT refunds on photovoltaic product exports, after having previously reduced the benefit from 13% to 9% for wafers, cells, and panels.
“ When the VAT refund reduction began to be applied, many buyers rushed to close deals. We were no longer talking about a 2% or 3% decrease, but the possibility of facing a sudden increase of between 6% and 9% ,” Donzino explains.
“In any case , the price of the panel in China is one thing, and the cost of delivering it to its destination is quite another,” pointed out the Head of Sales South Latam of JA Solar .
The company also sees conditions for less extreme behavior if the supply associated with less efficient products decreases: " I think the market can become somewhat more stable if some of the low-efficiency supply, which normally pushes prices down, is taken out of the equation ."
Price per watt is no longer the only deciding factor
The adjustment of supply may also alter developers' procurement strategies. Cost remains a determining factor, but minor differences between comparable products may be overshadowed by service, local presence, technical support, logistics, and system-level analysis.
According to the executive's business experience, when the difference is between 1% and 3% per watt , a buyer may accept a more expensive alternative if it incorporates advantages that reduce other risks of the asset.
Given this scenario, supply guarantees become increasingly important in a context of tighter capacity. A one-week delay in delivery can represent a loss greater than the savings achieved through more aggressive negotiation of the component price .
The margin also depends on the contractual arrangement and the technology used in the modules. Projects with very tight PPAs or highly competitive tenders are more sensitive and may prioritize more economical options.
Furthermore, local experience allows for anticipating operational constraints. As an example, he mentions projects in desert areas where a developer without prior experience might not initially consider the need to incorporate dust caps on the connectors .
With lower potential availability, higher technological requirements, and the elimination of the Chinese fiscal stimulus already in effect, the industry is entering a different stage than the one that took prices to historic lows during 2025 and early 2026 .
Although the range of USD 0.11–0.12/W proposed by JA Solar will ultimately depend on how much volume remains outside the market, the response of demand, the evolution of inventories and transportation costs.