The UK is looking to increase its onshore wind power capacity from the current 16.4 GW to 29 GW by 2030 , a jump of approximately 12.6 GW that could translate into annual savings of £3 billion (€3.45 billion) for consumers compared to producing the same amount of electricity using new gas-fired power plants.
But the possibility of capturing that benefit faces a concrete obstacle: the electricity grid is not advancing at the same pace as the projects . An analysis by Aurora Energy Research indicates that currently only projects equivalent to approximately half the capacity needed to reach the government's goal have received connection offers.
Specifically, there are 10.4 GW with connection offers in Scotland and another 2.6 GW in England and Wales , while RenewableUK warns that accelerating access to infrastructure will be crucial to meeting the Clean Power 2030 target.
“The electricity grid is still a mess,” said Tara Singh , chief executive of RenewableUK, during the Onshore Wind 2026 conference in Edinburgh.
The executive demanded that the necessary infrastructure be built and that developers have access to predictable connections, both in terms of timeframes and costs.
“We need the electricity grid infrastructure to be built, and for connections to be predictable at the price that was promised to everyone,” said Singh, who also called for a more transparent and accountable relationship between the industry, NESO, the Government and Ofgem.
The discussion is gaining importance because onshore wind power already provides around 12% of the UK's annual electricity needs .
Most of the 16.4 GW currently in operation is concentrated in Scotland, with 10.7 GW . The Scottish Onshore Wind Sector Deal sets an ambition for that market of 20 GW in operation by 2030.
England and Wales, meanwhile, should go from approximately 4.2 GW to 8.6 GW over the same period.
RenewableUK argues that completing this expansion would have effects that extend beyond electricity generation. In addition to the estimated annual savings compared to gas, reaching 29 GW could contribute approximately £500 million (€575 million) per year to local communities .
Of that amount, approximately £348 million (€400 million) would come from property and business taxes paid by operators, while another £145 million (€167 million) would go directly to long-term community funds.
These resources can be allocated to local facilities, environmental programs, vocational training, and measures against energy poverty or rural isolation.
The impact would also extend to employment. Currently, onshore wind power supports around 15,000 jobs in the UK, and RenewableUK projects that this figure could reach 17,500 by 2030 .
Furthermore, approximately 70% of total spending associated with onshore projects is already incurred domestically. Looking further ahead, a study commissioned by the association estimates that expanding the supply chain could generate up to £56 billion (€64.4 billion) in gross value added by 2050 .
Upgrade existing parks to accelerate towards 29 GW
Faced with the difficulties of incorporating new capacity, the industry is identifying another way to approach the goal: replacing old turbines with more powerful equipment and extending the useful life of parks that already have infrastructure and grid connection .
EnergyPulse data from RenewableUK indicates that these interventions could increase, on average, around a third of the capacity of the affected sites .
The advantage is that some of the existing infrastructure can be reused, reducing the need to develop new projects and their corresponding connections from scratch.
RenewableUK estimates that repowering and life extension could provide an additional 659 MW by 2030 , a figure that would increase to 2.1 GW in 2035 and 7.7 GW in 2040.
The proposal also finds support among a segment of the population. A Copper Consultancy survey indicates that 70% of respondents support replacing existing small turbines with larger models to increase clean electricity production. Three-quarters of the participants live in or near onshore wind farms.
For RenewableUK, however, that tool alone will not solve the challenge.
“ Achieving the UK’s 2030 target can only be accomplished if we can connect new projects to the grid more quickly and allow old turbines to be replaced with much more powerful new ones ,” Singh said.
Angela Hepworth, chief executive of Scottish Renewables, also warned that “ambition must be accompanied by results,” particularly in planning, connections, and transmission tariffs.
RenewableUK is also calling for greater predictability in TNUoS charges ahead of the AR9 CfD auction , while warning that the current trajectory of onshore wind is still not aligned with the Clean Power 2030 targets.
The challenge thus lies in converting the portfolio and available resources into effectively connected capacity. The UK needs to add around 12.6 GW over four years to reach 29 GW and capture the savings that the industry estimates at €3.45 billion annually compared to gas. For RenewableUK, the opportunity has been identified; the bottleneck now lies in the grid .