In dialogue with Strategic Energy , Julio Díaz Cohen , Senior Director and Chief Risk Officer (CRO) for International Business at AES , He warned that the 2026-2027 Super Niño could become one of the most intense climate events in recent history and called on Latin American countries to prepare now to reduce its impact on energy systems.
"El Niño conditions have been present since June. And current forecasts suggest that it could rank among the most intense events in history, if not the strongest," he stated.
The warning coincides with the latest forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which indicate a high probability that the phenomenon will reach a very strong intensity during the second half of 2026 and extend into the first months of 2027, with characteristics similar to the years 1997-1998 and 2015-2016.
The main vulnerability of Latin America and the Caribbean lies in the heavy reliance on hydroelectric power in the electricity mix. As Andrés Rebolledo , executive secretary of the Latin American and Caribbean Energy Organization (OLADE), pointed out during the webinar "El Niño 2026-2027: Monitoring, Forecasting, and Expected Impacts on the Energy Sector in LAC," this source accounts for between 43% and 45% of regional electricity generation.
For this reason, a prolonged rainfall deficit could translate into less availability of hydroelectric generation, a smaller reserve margin, higher operating costs, and an increasing need to resort to thermal backup.
However, Díaz Cohen clarified that the global intensity of the phenomenon does not mean that all countries will face the same impacts. “El Niño is a global climate phenomenon, but its effects depend on the conditions of each region: hydrology, rainfall patterns, the energy mix, available reserves, and the response capacity of electrical systems,” he noted.
Meteorological agencies' projections clearly show this disparate behavior. According to the analysis presented during the OLACDE webinar, Central America would face severe droughts and an early end to the rainy season, jeopardizing hydroelectric generation, although with better conditions for wind power thanks to the strengthening of the trade winds. In the Caribbean , the main challenge would be heat waves, which would increase the demand for electricity for heating and cooling and reduce the efficiency of thermal power plants and photovoltaic systems. Meanwhile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela could experience critical rainfall deficits with the risk of record lows in reservoirs, while the Southern Cone would face the opposite scenario: abundant rainfall, greater water availability, and the challenge of managing floods and inundations.
According to the specialist, Panama is an example of how the same country can experience different impacts depending on the region.
He explained that areas with greater influence from the Pacific Ocean, such as the province of Chiriquí, could register significant drops in water inputs, while in the Caribbean the reduction in rainfall could be less, although also relevant.
This scenario would be compounded by a less active hurricane season, another effect associated with the phenomenon.
The effects of Super Niño would not be limited to water availability. Above-normal temperatures would also increase electricity consumption due to greater use of air conditioning systems, while also altering the performance of various power generation technologies.
During the OLACDE webinar, Pier Maquilón , representative of the International Research Center on the El Niño Phenomenon (CIIFEN), warned that heat waves will increase energy demand and that the expected rainfall deficit for countries like Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela could affect hydroelectric production.
Experts also warned that the impact will not be limited to increased consumption. In Brazil, electricity demand has already increased by up to 15% due to episodes of high temperatures , while extreme heat reduces the efficiency of thermal power plants by between 0.45% and 0.8% for each additional degree , in addition to affecting the performance of solar panels when they operate above their design temperature.
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“At higher temperatures, solar panels may operate less efficiently. However, in some areas, less cloud cover could increase solar radiation and partially offset that effect. In the case of wind, the impact will depend on local weather patterns,” explained Díaz Cohen.
Although the intensity of the phenomenon is garnering much of the attention, Díaz Cohen insisted that the real challenge lies in the preparedness of electrical systems. In his view, there is still room to make decisions that will reduce operational risks and prevent emergency situations.
"This is all about anticipation and mitigation," he summarized.
During the OLACDE webinar, this vision was shared by Lisneli Valdés , Director of Energy at the National Energy Secretariat of Panama, who stressed that incorporating resilience scenarios into strategic and operational planning is no longer an option , but a necessity in the face of the increasing frequency of extreme weather events.
Regional integration is back in the spotlight
The potential impact of Super Niño has also reopened the debate on Latin America's electrical integration. According to Díaz Cohen, strengthening energy exchanges between countries will allow for a more flexible response when some regions face generation deficits while others have surpluses.
In that regard, he referred to the decision recently adopted by Panama to temporarily restrict electricity exports to Central America, with the aim of prioritizing the security of domestic supply.
Díaz Cohen acknowledged that such measures may be necessary in contexts of operational constraints or greater climate uncertainty. However, he pointed out that early planning, based on hydrological scenarios, backup availability, and regional coordination, can reduce the need for temporary restrictions and strengthen the resilience of electrical systems.
“When measures are anticipated well in advance, systems have more alternatives to preserve security of supply without unnecessarily limiting regional energy exchanges,” he said.
This position aligns with one of the main conclusions of the OLACDE webinar. According to Guido Maiulini , head of Strategic Advisory at the organization, regional energy integration is the primary tool for adapting to climate change , as it improves security of supply, allows for leveraging the complementarity between electrical systems, and contributes to reducing costs and emissions.
A window of action that is beginning to close
Although climate models always have a margin of uncertainty, Díaz Cohen considered that the current signs are consistent enough to act in advance and not wait for the impacts to materialize.
"There is a consensus that it will be a very strong El Niño or Super El Niño, according to all models and expert assessments," he concluded.
With an electricity grid that relies heavily on hydroelectricity, and a demand that will grow due to heat waves and increasingly extreme climate scenarios, Latin America faces one of the biggest tests for its energy security in recent years .
Beyond operational measures, the webinar offered a cross-cutting recommendation: base decision-making on official information from national meteorological services and the World Meteorological Organization , continuously update forecasts, evaluate adjustments or preventative measures to provide greater flexibility to the systems, and accelerate investments in resilient infrastructure. In this regard, specialists pointed out that some countries, such as Panama, are relatively better positioned to face this challenge thanks to the availability of thermal backup power, and other markets, such as Costa Rica, have already begun contracting for thermal backup and accelerating solar projects for the second half of 2026—a strategy that could be replicated in other markets to reduce the risk of rationing.
The message conveyed by both the OLACDE specialists and the interview with Julio Díaz Cohen converge on the same idea: the ability to anticipate decisions will be crucial to minimizing the impacts on the region's electricity supply.