TCL Solar anticipates a price increase of approximately 10% for photovoltaic modules in the coming months, driven by a global landscape shaped by tax changes in China, supply chain adjustments, and the end of a period of historically low prices. At the same time, the company notes that Guatemala's recent PEG-5 tender has raised the bar for the local market, where developers and customers are increasingly prioritizing equipment availability, quality, and long-term warranties.
“This year we are going to see a price increase in the coming months, and then it will stabilize. I would say, perhaps, around 10%, and then it will stabilize,” stated Gerardo Hernández Liñán , Sales Manager for Central America and the Caribbean at TCL Solar , in an exclusive interview during the Future Energy Summit (FES) Guatemala 2026 .
Watch the full interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3oupdwHZQA
This forecast coincides with a shift in the global photovoltaic industry. The elimination of VAT refunds on solar exports from China, coupled with the market restructuring after years of oversupply, is beginning to impact international module prices, a trend that various analysts also estimate will reach between 10% and 15% this year.
“ Prices have been fluctuating a lot lately at a global level ,” says Hernández Liñán.
Faced with this scenario, TCL Solar seeks to mitigate the impact through a strategy of commercial alliances: "We are looking not only for strategic partners in the region, but also globally, to try to mitigate this rising price."
According to the executive, this restructuring can also benefit the industry. " One good thing about these rising prices is that they also allow for better product quality ," he states.
He explains that the intense competitive pressure of recent years has affected the quality of some components. “ In recent years, with such low-cost products, the quality of the materials has been impacted ,” he adds.
The scenario he projects is an initial adjustment followed by market stabilization. “ I think that this year we're going to see a price increase in the coming months, and then it will stabilize ,” he says.
PEG-5 fosters a more mature and demanding market
Beyond the international context, Guatemala is positioning itself as one of the most dynamic markets in the region after the preliminary award of the PEG-5 auction, which incorporated 1258 MW distributed in 57 projects , with a predominance of renewable technologies and a strong presence of solar systems with storage.
The process not only reconfigures the country's electricity matrix, but also modifies the priorities of those who develop projects.
“ What customers are primarily requesting is product availability ,” says Hernández Liñán.
This demand is driven by both market growth and the constraints currently facing the global supply chain. In this regard, the executive notes that " the tariffs have also contributed to some shortages, in addition to high prices and demand ."
But the change isn't just about securing stock. There's also a greater focus on the technical specifications of the equipment.
“ We have also been asked about the issue of quality ,” he says.
For Hernández Liñán, this reflects an evolution in the Guatemalan market. “ It’s good to know that Guatemala is looking for panels that meet certain high standards. We’re pleased to see that this market is maturing ,” he says.
The reading coincides with the transformation left by PEG-5 , a tender that awarded nearly 73% of its capacity to renewable technologies , with 671 MW corresponding to solar projects with storage , consolidating a scheme where operational flexibility and technological quality are increasingly important.
In this scenario, TCL Solar expects to participate alongside regional partners in the new developments. “ I think we’ll handle it well and we’ll be able to enter these types of tenders with some of our partners, hoping to install these types of panels as well ,” he states.
The dynamism of the Guatemalan market could even extend into the coming months. During FES Guatemala 2026 , the Minister of Energy and Mines, Víctor Hugo Ventura , announced that the government is analyzing a PEG-6 project to incorporate the capacity that remained pending after the recently awarded bidding process, reinforcing the expectation of continued expansion of the electrical system.
Competition is no longer solely focused on price
Although the utility segment continues to lead regional expansion, TCL Solar also identifies sustained growth in the industrial and residential markets.
“ Utility has been one of the markets that has been emerging lately, but I also want to highlight the industrial and residential sectors ,” says Hernández Liñán.
Although these segments do not reach the scale of large projects, they present increasingly relevant commercial challenges.
“ These two branches of industry also present an interesting challenge ,” he says.
Competition, he explains, is no longer defined solely by price, but by the ability to demonstrate reliability throughout the project's lifespan.
“ It’s no longer just about price, but you have to demonstrate in some way that your product can be there for 10, 15, 20 or 30 years working, ” he points out.
This change also accompanies a consolidation process in the international photovoltaic market. After years of oversupply and the emergence of numerous manufacturers, Hernández Liñán believes that only those companies capable of offering technical support and long-term guarantees will survive.
“ I know that in recent years many brands with a certain recognition have emerged and many of them have had to leave ,” he warns.
As he explains, this scenario ends up primarily harming developers and end users. “ Unfortunately, those who suffer most from all of this are the end users, the developers, because they lose that support ,” he points out.
Consequently, he believes that consolidation will strengthen manufacturers with greater technical and financial capacity. “ While consolidation is tough because many companies exit, those that remain strong can, in some way, offer those extra services and that security ,” he concludes.
Thus, TCL Solar projects a market where price adjustments will mark the end of the ultra-economic module era, while Guatemala , driven by PEG-5 and the expectation of new bidding processes, raises the bar for suppliers seeking to position themselves in one of the most dynamic photovoltaic markets in Central America.