XM, operator of the National Interconnected System, SIN, and Administrator of the Wholesale Energy Market, MEM, as responsible for energy operational planning, constantly monitors the system variables, which allows identifying risks to the safe and reliable meeting of demand.
In this regard, since the beginning of 2023, once international meteorological agencies announced the possible occurrence of a transition from the La Niña phenomenon to the El Niño phenomenon, XM intensified the monitoring of the System variables and the performance of specific analyses of the possible behavior of the SIN under different scenarios of water deficits in the basins of interest to the Colombian electricity sector.
Based on these analyses, XM has issued signals to market agents and sector institutions, proposing actions to minimize risks to meeting the demand of the SIN and, likewise, monitoring their implementation.
At the beginning of the 2023-2024 summer season (December 1, 2023), the country had an aggregate useful reservoir level of 74.53%, a value 7.9% higher than that presented on December 1, 2015, prior to the 2015-2016 El Niño phenomenon.
The behavior of the other energy variables of the System, such as demand, thermal generation, international exchanges and other sources of generation (solar, wind, cogenerators and self-generators), has allowed the national aggregate reservoir to be at 59.55% of its useful capacity to date, a value 4.9% higher than that presented on the same date in 2016.
It is important to clarify that this value is 6.32% higher than the reference path value for the aggregate reservoir of the system defined in CREG Resolution 209 of 2020. Consistent with the presence of a strong El Niño phenomenon such as the one the country is experiencing, in December the water contributions to the System were deficient, standing at 57.97% of the historical average, and this condition persists so far in January 2024, standing at 56.69% of the historical average. Regarding the El Niño phenomenon, the forecasts of international climate agencies from the beginning of 2023 were confirmed in May of that same year, the month in which the anomaly in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean exceeded the 0.5 °C threshold, a condition that has persisted to date.
According to international criteria for determining the presence and magnitude of the phenomenon, its occurrence was officially declared in November 2023, after five consecutive periods in which the anomaly in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean exceeded the threshold of 0.5 °C.
Likewise, since September to date, the conditions of anomaly in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean greater than 1.5 °C have been met, which constitutes a strong El Niño phenomenon.
The most recent forecasts from meteorological agencies predict the end of the El Niño phenomenon starting in the March-April-May quarter of 2024; for its part, IDEAM has indicated that the months with the greatest deficit in terms of water inputs are expected to be January and February 2024 and that, although it is likely that in March there will be deficit inputs in some regions of the country, this deficit would be less than those expected in January and February, thus beginning the transition to a period of climatic normality. Management of the CACSSE Since March 2023, the Advisory Commission for Coordination and Monitoring of the Energy Situation (CACSSE), led by the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), and with the participation of the UPME, CREG, XM, Ecogas, Ecopetrol, ISA, the National Operations Council, and some guests such as the SSPD, the DNP, and representatives of market agents, has held permanent sessions to advance actions aimed at maintaining the conditions of security, reliability, and economy in the provision of energy service, through the analysis of multiple variables that make up the energy balance of the SIN, such as demand, thermal generation, reservoir levels, contributions, exports and imports, new sources of generation, among others.
Juan Carlos Morales, manager of XM's National Dispatch Center, observed: "XM's analyses indicate that, assuming deficient hydrological conditions similar to those seen in past El Niño events, without any extraordinary events affecting the sector's infrastructure, and with the El Niño phenomenon ending as predicted by international agencies, the country has sufficient energy generation capacity and primary resources (mainly water, gas, coal, and liquid fuels) to meet energy demand during the summer of 2023-2024." He emphasized, "XM will continue working closely with CACSSE, market participants, and sector institutions, continuously monitoring system variables to meet electricity demand with criteria of quality, safety, reliability, and cost-effectiveness during the summer season."